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Empirical Analysis of Emigration to Europe from Türkiye: Evidence from the Gravity Model Including the Covid-19 Effect for the Period 2015-2021

Author

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  • Mustafa BAYLAN

    (Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam University)

  • Onur ÇELİK

    (İstanbul Gelişim University)

Abstract

With this study, we deal with the relationship between international migration and income, population and distance indicators within the scope of the gravity model, including the Covid-19 restrictions. The inclusion of the Covid-19 effect in a model is a novelty for sciencific literature and represents the main contribution of this study for related field. We seek Turkish emigration to 10 European countries which Turkish emigrants most prefer by using static panel data analysis for the period of 2015-2021. Our findings from the GLS regression analysis indicate that the income level in the recipient country increases the migration, while the income level of the origin country and the Covid-19 restrictions decrease it. Moreover, the migrants tend to move to the crowded places. Increasing the population in destination countries is a positive function of the migration. Finally, the distance between regions and population of the origin country are insignificant for the migration. Explanatory variables of the gravity model including outbreak effect explains approximately 79% of the change in the migration movements. In the direction of our results, the policies being created by taking possible brain drain into consideration are recommended.

Suggested Citation

  • Mustafa BAYLAN & Onur ÇELİK, 2023. "Empirical Analysis of Emigration to Europe from Türkiye: Evidence from the Gravity Model Including the Covid-19 Effect for the Period 2015-2021," Bingol University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Bingol University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 7(1), pages 259-272, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bgo:journl:v:7:y:2023:i:1:p:259-272
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.33399/biibfad.1278044
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gönül Muratoğlu & Yusuf Muratoğlu, 2016. "Immigration to the OECD Countries from Turkey in 1960-2010 Period: A Gravity Model Approach," Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis, BETA Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 51-69.
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    3. Dinçer Dedeoğlu & H. Deniz Genç, 2017. "Turkish migration to Europe: a modified gravity model analysis," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 7(1), pages 1-19, December.
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    5. Agbola, Frank W. & Acupan, Angelito B., 2010. "An empirical analysis of international labour migration in the Philippines," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 386-396, December.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • B23 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Econometrics; Quantitative and Mathematical Studies
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration

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