IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/beg/journl/v4y2025i2p36-48.html

How do sanctions shape intra-African trade? Implications for AfCFTA implementation

Author

Listed:
  • P. Okillong

    (Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC), Uganda)

  • J. Luwedde

    (Independent Consultant)

  • A.K. Nattabi

    (Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC), Uganda)

Abstract

This study examines the role of sanctions in shaping intra-African trade. Despite efforts to boost intra-African trade, Africa’s share of global trade remains low, stagnating at around 15 percent. Using an augmented gravity model and Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimation, this study analyzes the effects of various sanctions (trade, financial, arms, military, and travel) on bilateral exports among African countries. The findings reveal that trade sanctions significantly reduce exports within the continent. Financial sanctions, restrictions on military assistance, and travel bans also negatively affect trade, though to varying degrees. The results underscore the need for African nations to mitigate the adverse effects of sanctions by strengthening economic resilience, enhancing trade facilitation measures, and fostering diplomatic engagement. This study provides policymakers with valuable insights on how to navigate geopolitical challenges while maximizing the benefits of the AfCFTA.

Suggested Citation

  • P. Okillong & J. Luwedde & A.K. Nattabi, 2025. "How do sanctions shape intra-African trade? Implications for AfCFTA implementation," Journal of Economic Policy and Management Issues, JEPMI, vol. 4(2), pages 36-48.
    • Handle: RePEc:beg:journl:v:4:y:2025:i:2:p:36-48
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://jepmi.aesri.org/RePEc/beg/beg-journl/RePEc-JEPMI-Volume-4-2-3B-Okillong-et-al.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frank, Jonas, 2018. "The effects of economic sanctions on trade: New evidence from a panel PPML gravity approach," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 17-2018, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    2. Mario Larch & Jeff Luckstead & Yoto V. Yotov, 2024. "Economic sanctions and agricultural trade," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 106(4), pages 1477-1517, August.
    3. Gabriel Felbermayr & Constantinos Syropoulos & Erdal Yalcin & Yoto Yotov, 2019. "On the Effects of Sanctions on Trade and Welfare: New Evidence Based on Structural Gravity and a New Database," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2019-3, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    4. Matthieu Crozet & Julian Hinz, 2020. "Friendly fire: the trade impact of the Russia sanctions and counter-sanctions," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 35(101), pages 97-146.
    5. Anton Filipenko & Olena Bazhenova & Roman Stakanov, 2020. "Economic Sanctions: Theory, Policy, Mechanisms," Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, Publishing house "Baltija Publishing", vol. 6(2).
    6. Santos Silva, J.M.C. & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2011. "Further simulation evidence on the performance of the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 220-222, August.
    7. Ghodsi, Mahdi & Karamelikli, Huseyin, 2022. "The Impact of Sanctions Imposed by the European Union against Iran on their Bilateral Trade: General versus Targeted Sanctions," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 33-58, February.
    8. Afesorgbor, Sylvanus Kwaku, 2019. "The impact of economic sanctions on international trade: How do threatened sanctions compare with imposed sanctions?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 11-26.
    9. World Bank, 2020. "The African Continental Free Trade Area," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 34139, April.
    10. Ngoc Thang Doan & Manh Ha Tran, 2023. "Quantifying the Effect of Economic Sanctions on Trade in Cultural Goods," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 401-423, July.
    11. Peter A. G. Bergeijk & Charles Marrewijk, 1994. "Economic Sanctions: A Hidden Cost of the New World Order," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Manas Chatterji & Henk Jager & Annemarie Rima (ed.), The Economics of International Security, chapter 16, pages 168-182, Palgrave Macmillan.
    12. Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Jeffrey J. Schott & Kimberly Ann Elliott, 2007. "Economic Sanctions Reconsidered, 3rd edition (hardcover)," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 4075, January.
    13. Mian Dai & Gabriel Felbermayr & Aleksandra Kirilakha & Constantinos Syropoulos & Erdal Yalcin & Yoto Yotov, 2021. "Timing the Impact of Sanctions on Trade," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2021-7, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lisandra Flach & Inga Heiland & Mario Larch & Marina Steininger & Feodora A. Teti, 2024. "Quantifying the partial and general equilibrium effects of sanctions on Russia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 281-323, February.
    2. Mario Larch & Serge Shikher & Constantinos Syropoulos & Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "Quantifying the impact of economic sanctions on international trade in the energy and mining sectors," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(3), pages 1038-1063, July.
    3. Devasmita Jena & C. Akash & Prachi Gupta, 2023. "Deflecting Economic Sanctions: Do Trade and Political Alliances Matter?," Working Papers 2023-248, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    4. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Ito, Keiko & Fukao, Kyoji & Deseatnicov, Ivan, 2023. "The impact of the strengthening of export controls on Japanese exports of dual-use goods," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 160-179.
    5. Devasmita Jena & C. Akash & Prachi Gupta, 2024. "Deflecting economic sanctions: do trade and political alliances matter?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 543-567, July.
    6. Sylvanus Kwaku Afesorgbor & Lukas Kornher & Fabio G. Santeramo, 2025. "The Impacts of Economic Sanctions on Food (Prices) Security: Evidence From Targeted Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(8), pages 1942-1956, August.
    7. Gutmann, Jerg & Neuenkirch, Matthias & Neumeier, Florian, 2023. "The economic effects of international sanctions: An event study," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 1214-1231.
    8. Gutmann, Jerg & Langer, Pascal & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2024. "International sanctions and emigration," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    9. Demena, B.A. & Benalcazar Jativa, G. & Reta, A.S. & Kimararungu, P.B. & van Bergeijk, P.A.G., 2021. "Does research on economic sanctions suffer from publication bias?," ISS Working Papers - General Series 674, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    10. Fatemeh Rahimzadeh & Hamed Pirpour & Bahman P. Ebrahimi, 2022. "The impact of economic sanctions on the efficiency of bilateral energy exports: the case of Iran," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(9), pages 1-18, September.
    11. Hayakawa,Kazunobu & Kumagai,Satoru, 2022. "The trade effect of economic sanctions: evidence from the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict," IDE Discussion Papers 857, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    12. Muharrem Cevik, 2026. "Sanctions and Creative Trade: Evidence from Russia," Working Papers 202601, Center for Global Policy Analysis, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    13. Eckhard Janeba, 2024. "Extraterritorial trade sanctions: Theory and application to the US–Iran–EU conflict," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 49-71, February.
    14. Tibor Besedeš & Stefan Goldbach & Volker Nitsch, 2024. "Smart or smash? The effect of financial sanctions on trade in goods and services," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 223-251, February.
    15. Magoum Tedom, Ornela Amelie & Ondo, Assoumou & Keneck-Massil, Joseph, 2025. "International aid held hostage by international sanctions," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    16. Firat Demir & Saleh S. Tabrizy, 2022. "Gendered effects of sanctions on manufacturing employment: Evidence from Iran," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 2040-2069, November.
    17. repec:ags:aaea22:343703 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Ali Dadpay & Saleh S. Tabrizy, 2021. "Political Agreements and Exporting Activities: An Empirical Assessment of the Effects of the JCPOA Agreement on Iran’s Exports," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(1), pages 147-180, March.
    19. Shingal, Anirudh, 2024. "Economic sanctions and domestic diversion," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    20. Jerg Gutmann & Matthias Neuenkirch & Florian Neumeier, 2024. "Do China and Russia undermine Western sanctions? Evidence from DiD and event study estimation," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 132-160, February.
    21. Görg, Holger & Jacobs, Anna & Meuchelböck, Saskia, 2024. "Who is to suffer? Quantifying the impact of sanctions on German firms," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:beg:journl:v:4:y:2025:i:2:p:36-48. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Prof Nicholas M Odhiambo (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.