IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bdr/ensayo/v22y2004i46-1p146-185.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Requisitos para la estabilidad fiscal: un balance y la agenda

Author

Listed:
  • Sergio Clavijo

Abstract

En este documento se pasa revista a la situación fiscal y la fuente de sus desequilibrios. Se cotejan las necesidades de ahorro primario con las futuras cargas que representan las deudas contingentes provenientes de las garantías públicas y, principalmente, las obligaciones pensionales, equivalentes a gastos adicionales por cerca de 1% del producto interno bruto (PIB) en cada año. La conclusión fundamental es que el país requiere continuar avanzando en sus reformas estructurales de segunda generación, de tal manera que se consolide la meta de superávit primarios del 3% del PIB. Sin embargo, hay menos optimismo sobre sus efectos de disminución rápida del nivel de endeudamiento, debido a la carga que ejercerán estas deudas contingentes. En efecto, el alivio en el esfuerzo fiscal que provee las mejores perspectivas de crecimiento económico (4% anual) y las menores tasas de interés, tenderá a ser compensado por estas mayores cargas no incluidas en la relación deuda pública explícita / PIB

Suggested Citation

  • Sergio Clavijo, 2004. "Requisitos para la estabilidad fiscal: un balance y la agenda," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 22(46-1), pages 146-185, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:ensayo:v:22:y:2004:i:46-1:p:146-185
    DOI: 10.32468/Espe.46-103
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.32468/Espe.46-103
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.32468/Espe.46-103?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Parthasarathi Shome, 1992. "Trends and Future Directions in Tax Policy Reform: A Latin American Perspective," IMF Working Papers 1992/043, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Leonardo Villar Gómez, 2004. "Inflación y finanzas públicas," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 22(47), pages 56-105, December.
    3. Krugman, Paul, 1988. "Financing vs. forgiving a debt overhang," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 253-268, November.
    4. Ms. Hélène Poirson & Mr. Luca A Ricci & Ms. Catherine A Pattillo, 2004. "What Are the Channels Through Which External Debt Affects Growth?," IMF Working Papers 2004/015, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Carlos Esteban Posada P. & Luis Eduardo Arango, 2000. "Podremos Sostener La Deuda Pública?," Borradores de Economia 3330, Banco de la Republica.
    6. Meijdam, Lex & van de Ven, Martijn & Verbon, Harrie A. A., 1996. "The dynamics of government debt," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 67-90, April.
    7. Cardona Bermeo, Jorge Enrique, 2002. "Manejo de pasivos contingentes en el marco de la disciplina fiscal en Colombia," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 34872, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hernán Rincón & Jorge Ramos & Ignacio Lozano, 2004. "Crisis Fiscal Actual: Diagnóstico Y Recomendaciones," Borradores de Economia 2244, Banco de la Republica.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arsène Aurelien NJAMEN KENGDO & Luc NEMBOT NDEFFO & Désiré AVOM, 2020. "The Effect of Foreign Debt on Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan African Sub-Regions," Economics and Applied Informatics, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 1, pages 109-114.
    2. Markus Eberhardt & Andrea F. Presbitero, 2013. "This Time They’re Different: Heterogeneity and Nonlinearity in the Relationship between Debt and Growth," Discussion Papers 2013/10, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    3. Olugbenga Onafowora & Oluwole Owoye, 2019. "Impact of external debt shocks on economic growth in Nigeria: a SVAR analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 157-179, May.
    4. Haytham Y.M. Ewaida, 2017. "The Impact of Sovereign Debt on Growth: An Empirical Study on GIIPS versus JUUSD Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2A), pages 607-633.
    5. Pratibha Saini & Krishna Muniyoor, 2021. "Revisiting The Debt–Growth Nexus: Evidence From India," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 66(231), pages 151-172, October –.
    6. Serhan ÇIFTÇIOĞLU & Amin SOKHANVAR, 2018. "External Debt- Economic Growth Nexus in Selected CEE Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 85-100, December.
    7. Ikonen, Pasi, 2010. "Effect of finance on growth through more efficient utilization of technological innovations," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 21/2010, Bank of Finland.
    8. Naeem AKRAM*, 2017. "Role of Public Debt in Economic Growth of Sri Lanka: An ARDL Approach," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 27(2), pages 189-212.
    9. Presbitero, Andrea F., 2008. "Debt Relief Effectiveness and Institution Building," MPRA Paper 12597, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Sergio Clavijo, 2002. "Deuda Pública Cierta y Contingente: El caso de Colombia," Borradores de Economia 205, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    11. Imbs, Jean & Rancière, Romain, 2005. "The Overhang Hangover," CEPR Discussion Papers 5210, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Sanford, Jonathan E., 2004. "IDA Grants and HIPC Debt Cancellation: Their Effectiveness and Impact on IDA Resources," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1579-1607, September.
    13. Swastika, Purti & Dewandaru, Ginanjar & Masih, Mansur, 2013. "The Impact of Debt on Economic Growth: A Case Study of Indonesia," MPRA Paper 58837, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Drine, Imed & Nabi, M. Sami, 2010. "Public external debt, informality and production efficiency in developing countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 487-495, March.
    15. Brian Tavonga Mazorodze, 2020. "Re-visiting the External Debt-Economic Growth Question in Zimbabwe," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 12(2), pages 1-8.
    16. Adewale Hassan & Daniel Meyer, 2021. "Exploring the Channels of Transmission between External Debt and Economic Growth: Evidence from Sub-Saharan African Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-16, April.
    17. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2010_021 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Riffat, Nisma & Munir, Kashif, 2015. "Exploring the Channels and Impact of Debt on Economic Growth in South Asia," MPRA Paper 66830, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Saungweme Talknice & Odhiambo Nicholas M., 2018. "An Analysis of Public Debt Servicing in Zambia: Trends, Reforms and Challenges," Croatian International Relations Review, Sciendo, vol. 24(81), pages 113-136, May.
    20. Jernej Mencinger & Aleksander Aristovnik & Miroslav Verbic, 2014. "The Impact of Growing Public Debt on Economic Growth in the European Union," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 16(35), pages 403-403, February.
    21. Cassimon, Denis & Moreno-Dodson, Blanca & Wodon, Quentin, 2008. "Debt Sustainability for Low-Income Countries: A Review of Standard and Alternative Concepts," MPRA Paper 11077, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    deuda pública; Latinoamérica.;

    JEL classification:

    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • N26 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Latin America; Caribbean

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdr:ensayo:v:22:y:2004:i:46-1:p:146-185. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Clorith Angélica Bahos Olivera (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/brcgvco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.