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Requisitos para la estabilidad fiscal: un balance y la agenda

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  • Sergio Clavijo

Abstract

En este documento se pasa revista a la situación fiscal y la fuente de sus desequilibrios. Se cotejan las necesidades de ahorro primario con las futuras cargas que representan las deudas contingentes provenientes de las garantías públicas y, principalmente, las obligaciones pensionales, equivalentes a gastos adicionales por cerca de 1% del producto interno bruto (PIB) en cada año. La conclusión fundamental es que el país requiere continuar avanzando en sus reformas estructurales de segunda generación, de tal manera que se consolide la meta de superávit primarios del 3% del PIB. Sin embargo, hay menos optimismo sobre sus efectos de disminución rápida del nivel de endeudamiento, debido a la carga que ejercerán estas deudas contingentes. En efecto, el alivio en el esfuerzo fiscal que provee las mejores perspectivas de crecimiento económico (4% anual) y las menores tasas de interés, tenderá a ser compensado por estas mayores cargas no incluidas en la relación deuda pública explícita / PIB

Suggested Citation

  • Sergio Clavijo, 2004. "Requisitos para la estabilidad fiscal: un balance y la agenda," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 22(46-1), pages 146-185, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:ensayo:v:22:y:2004:i:46-1:p:146-185
    DOI: 10.32468/Espe.46-103
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • N26 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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