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Deuda Pública Cierta y Contingente: El caso de Colombia

Author

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  • Sergio Clavijo

    ()

Abstract

Este documento examina la dinámica de la deuda pública colombiana, distinguiendo entre la deuda cierta (la del SPNF) y la deuda contingente (la pensional y la correspondiente a las garantías estatales). Los ejercicios tradicionales sobre sostenibilidad de la deuda rara vez incluyen los efectos de la deuda contingente. Nuestros resultados indican que se requiere generar un ahorro primario equivalente al 3% del PIB para estabilizar la relación deuda pública (cierta)/PIB alrededor del 50%. Dado que en la actualidad se estaría generando tan solo un superávit primario del 2% del PIB, es necesario revisar los esquemas de tributación, la eficiencia de los mismos y los programas de gasto público para poder sostener un superávit primario de 3.5% del PIB, incluyendo 0.5 del PIB adicional para enfrentar la carga que representarán los pasivos contingentes.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergio Clavijo, 2002. "Deuda Pública Cierta y Contingente: El caso de Colombia," Borradores de Economia 205, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:205
    as

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    File URL: http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ftp/borra205.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Miguel Urrutia Montoya, 2000. "Estrategia para Cerrar la Brecha Fiscal," Borradores de Economia 162, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Carlos Esteban Posada P. & Luis Eduardo Arango, 2000. "Podremos Sostener La Deuda Pública?," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003330, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    3. Mauricio Cabrera G. & Jorge Iván González, 2000. "La disyuntiva no es pagar o sisar la deuda, es pagarla a sobreprecio o a un precio justo," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 2(3), pages 185-194, July-dece.
    4. Sergio Clavijo, 2001. "Viabilidad De La Deuda Externa Colombiana," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003758, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    5. Cardona Bermeo, Jorge Enrique, 2002. "Manejo de pasivos contingentes en el marco de la disciplina fiscal en Colombia," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 34872, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    6. Antonio Hernández Gamarra & Luis I. Lozano Espitia & Martha Misas Arango, 2000. "La disyuntiva de la deuda pública: pagar o sisar," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 2(3), pages 149-184, July-dece.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • N26 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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