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Financial Stress, Monetary Policy, and Economic Activity




The recent global crisis was characterized by a remarkable intensity in the negative feedback process between financial sector developments and the real economy. Exceptional measures were required to break this process, and the crisis stimulated interest in the relationship between financial sector developments, the real economy, and monetary policy. The authors examine this relationship by reviewing the relevant literature and then estimating a model with Canadian data. Both theoretical models and empirical findings point to the possibility of non-linear relationships between monetary policy, financial stress, and the real economy. The research indicates that when the economy can move into different regimes of financial stress, monetary policy can influence the likelihood of moving from one regime to another. It also implies that monetary policy actions have stronger effects when financial stress is high and that the tightening of monetary policy appears to have more powerful effects than easing.

Suggested Citation

  • Fuchun Li & Pierre St-Amant, 2010. "Financial Stress, Monetary Policy, and Economic Activity," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2010(Autumn), pages 9-18.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bcarev:v:2010:y:2010:i:autumn10:p:9-18

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Weise, Charles L, 1999. "The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy: A Nonlinear Vector Autoregression Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(1), pages 85-108, February.
    2. Rhee, Wooheon & Rich, Robert W., 1995. "Inflation and the asymmetric effects of money on output fluctuations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 683-702.
    3. Thoma, Mark A., 1994. "Subsample instability and asymmetries in money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 279-306.
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    Cited by:

    1. Martin, Christopher & Milas, Costas, 2013. "Financial crises and monetary policy: Evidence from the UK," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 654-661.
    2. Kremer, Manfred & Lo Duca, Marco & Holló, Dániel, 2012. "CISS - a composite indicator of systemic stress in the financial system," Working Paper Series 1426, European Central Bank.
    3. Marius Constantin APOSTOAIE, 2011. "Inflation Targeting In Romania in the Perspective of Joining the Exchange Rate Mechanism II," Timisoara Journal of Economics, West University of Timisoara, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 4(1(13)), pages 43-56.
    4. Fedorova, E. & Mukhin, A. & Dovzhenko, S., 2016. "Modeling Rules of Monetary Policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation with the Financial Stress Index," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 29(1), pages 84-105.
    5. Renee Fry-McKibbin & Jasmine Zheng, 2016. "Effects of US monetary policy shocks during financial crises - A threshold vector autoregression approach," CAMA Working Papers 2016-25, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Apostolakis, George & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P., 2015. "Financial stress spillovers across the banking, securities and foreign exchange markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 1-21.
    7. Halvorsen, Jørn I. & Jacobsen, Dag Henning, 2016. "The bank-lending channel empirically revisited," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 95-105.
    8. Aleksandra Zdzienicka & Sally Chen & Federico Diaz Kalan & Stefan Laseen & Katsiaryna Svirydzenka, 2015. "Effects of Monetary and Macroprudential Policies on Financial Conditions; Evidence from the United States," IMF Working Papers 15/288, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics


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