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Garch Time-Series Models: An Application To Retail Livestock Prices

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  • Aradhyula, Satheesh V.
  • Holt, Matthew T.

Abstract

This article applies recent developments in time-series modeling to analyze the retail prices of beef, pork, and chicken. Specifically, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models were fitted to these data to determine if, unlike more traditional time-series models, the conditional variances of the underlying stochastic processes are nonconstant. The estimation results indicate that the constant conditional variances assumption can be rejected. Furthermore, ex post forecast intervals generated from the GARCH processes indicate that the forecasting accuracy of the estimated models has varied widely over time with substantial volatility occurring during the 1970s and early 1980s.

Suggested Citation

  • Aradhyula, Satheesh V. & Holt, Matthew T., 1988. "Garch Time-Series Models: An Application To Retail Livestock Prices," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 13(02), December.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:wjagec:32111
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Satheesh V. Aradhyula & Matthew T. Holt, 1988. "Risk Behavior and Rational Expectations in the U.S. Broiler Market," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications 88-wp33, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at Iowa State University.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yang, Seung-Ryong & Koo, Won W. & Wilson, William W., 1992. "Heteroskedasticity In Crop Yield Models," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(01), July.
    2. Lei, Li-Fen, 1992. "Using futures and option contracts to manage price and quantity risk: A case of corn farmers in central Iowa," ISU General Staff Papers 1992010108000011326, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Kirk, Robert, 1971. "Growth Potential Identification and Public Investment Strategy," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 1(1).
    4. Aizhen Li & Boris E. Bravo-Ureta & David K. Okello & Carl M. Deom & Naveen Puppala, 2013. "Groundnut Production and Climatic Variability: Evidence from Uganda," Working Papers 17, University of Connecticut, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Charles J. Zwick Center for Food and Resource Policy.
    5. Omar Enrique Castillo Nuñez, 2008. "Comportamiento de los precios del ganado hembra de levante de primera clase en Montería y Sincelejo (Colombia)," REVISTA FACULTAD DE CIENCIAS ECONÓMICAS, UNIVERSIDAD MILITAR NUEVA GRANADA, December.
    6. Weaver, Robert D & Natcher, William C, 2000. "Commodity Price Volatility under New Market Orientations," MPRA Paper 9862, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Shekar Bose, 2001. "Price volatility of south-east fishery's quota species: an empirical analysis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 283-297.
    8. Framingham, Charles F. & Craddock, W.J., 1974. "Urban Implications of Regional and Interregional Efficiency in Agricultural Production," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 4(1).
    9. Anonymous, 1990. "Structural Change in Livestock: Causes, Implications, Alternatives," Research Institute on Livestock Pricing Publications 232728, Virginia Tech, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    10. Rezitis, Anthony N., 2003. "Volatility Spillover Effects in Greek Consumer Meat Prices," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 4(1), January.
    11. Anonymous, 2012. "Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Volume 08, Issue 1," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 8(1).
    12. Maurice, Noemie & Davis, Junior, 2011. "Unravelling the underlying causes of price volatility in world coffee and cocoa commodity markets," MPRA Paper 43813, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2012.

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