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Democracy and Economic Growth in China: Evidence from Cointegration and Causality Testing

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  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar
  • Smyth, Russell

Abstract

This article considers the relationship between democracy and economic growth in China using the Error-Correction Mechanism test for cointegration, Autoregressive Distributed Lag modelling, Granger causality and dynamic modelling via variance decomposition and impulse response analysis. Our main findings are that in the long run the lack of democracy in China has had a statistically significant negative effect on real income, while in the short run democracy has had a statistically insignificant effect on economic growth. Our results suggest that in the long run growth in capital, labour and democracy Granger cause economic growth, while in the short run there is bi-directional Granger causality between democracy and economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Smyth, Russell, 2006. "Democracy and Economic Growth in China: Evidence from Cointegration and Causality Testing," Review of Applied Economics, Review of Applied Economics, vol. 2(1).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:reapec:50282
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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50282
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tavares, Jose & Wacziarg, Romain, 2001. "How democracy affects growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 1341-1378, August.
    2. Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107.
    3. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    4. Yong Glasure & Aie-Rie Lee & James Norris, 1999. "Level of economic development and political democracy revisited," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 5(4), pages 466-477, November.
    5. Durlauf, Steven N. & Quah, Danny T., 1999. "The new empirics of economic growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 235-308 Elsevier.
    6. Michael L. Nieswiadomy & Mark C. Strazicich, 2004. "Are Political Freedoms Converging?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(2), pages 323-340, April.
    7. Fosu, A. K., 2001. "Political instability and economic growth in developing economies: some specification empirics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 289-294, February.
    8. Wang, Yan & Yao, Yudong, 2003. "Sources of China's economic growth 1952-1999: incorporating human capital accumulation," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 32-52.
    9. Alfredo Esposto & Peter Zaleski, 1999. "Economic Freedom and the Quality of Life: An Empirical Analysis," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 185-197, June.
    10. Yan Wang & Yudong Yao, 2001. "Sources of China's economic growth, 1952-99 : incorporating human capital accumulation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2650, The World Bank.
    11. Evelyne Huber & Dietrich Rueschemeyer & John D. Stephens, 1993. "The Impact of Economic Development on Democracy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 71-86, Summer.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sara Corujo & Marta Simões, 2012. "Democracy and Growth: Evidence for Portugal (1960–2001)," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 18(3), pages 512-528, March.
    2. Vishal Jaunky, 2013. "Democracy and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: a panel data approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 987-1008, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; democracy; economic growth; International Development; C22; E23;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production

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