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Democracy and Economic Growth in China: Evidence from Cointegration and Causality Testing

  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar
  • Smyth, Russell

This article considers the relationship between democracy and economic growth in China using the Error-Correction Mechanism test for cointegration, Autoregressive Distributed Lag modelling, Granger causality and dynamic modelling via variance decomposition and impulse response analysis. Our main findings are that in the long run the lack of democracy in China has had a statistically significant negative effect on real income, while in the short run democracy has had a statistically insignificant effect on economic growth. Our results suggest that in the long run growth in capital, labour and democracy Granger cause economic growth, while in the short run there is bi-directional Granger causality between democracy and economic growth.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50282
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Article provided by Review of Applied Economics in its journal Review of Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 2 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ags:reapec:50282
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.lincoln.ac.nz/story11874.html

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  1. Tavares, Jose & Wacziarg, Romain, 2001. "How democracy affects growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 1341-1378, August.
  2. Steven N. Durlauf & Danny T. Quah, 1998. "The New Empirics of Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 6422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Michael L. Nieswiadomy & Mark C. Strazicich, 2004. "Are Political Freedoms Converging?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(2), pages 323-340, April.
  4. Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107, March.
  5. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
  6. Wang, Yan & Yao, Yudong, 2003. "Sources of China's economic growth 1952-1999: incorporating human capital accumulation," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 32-52.
  7. Alfredo Esposto & Peter Zaleski, 1999. "Economic Freedom and the Quality of Life: An Empirical Analysis," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 185-197, June.
  8. Evelyne Huber & Dietrich Rueschemeyer & John D. Stephens, 1993. "The Impact of Economic Development on Democracy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 71-86, Summer.
  9. Yan Wang & Yudong Yao, 2001. "Sources of China's economic growth, 1952-99 : incorporating human capital accumulation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2650, The World Bank.
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