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An Application Of The Rational Expectations Hypothesis In The U.S. Beekeeping Industry

  • Willett, Lois Schertz
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    A national beekeeping-industry model, assuming rational expectations, is presented. Consistent and asymptotically efficient estimates are obtained by a modified two-step two-stage least squares method. Based on parameter estimates, elasticities, and likelihood functions, a previously estimated modified adaptive expectations model explains industry behavior better than the rational expectations model. Simulation analyses of the models suggest the direction of the impacts of an ineffective federal honey support program from 1982 through 1985 is similar but the magnitudes are varied. The rational expectations model indicates the decrease in beekeepers' revenue in this period is larger than the decrease identified by the modified adaptive expectations model.

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    Article provided by Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association in its journal Northeastern Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

    Volume (Year): 20 (1991)
    Issue (Month): 2 (October)

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    Handle: RePEc:ags:nejare:29019
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    1. Satheesh V. Aradhyula & Matthew T. Holt, 1988. "Risk Behavior and Rational Expectations in the U.S. Broiler Market," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 88-wp33, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    2. Askari, Hossein & Cummings, John Thomas, 1977. "Estimating Agricultural Supply Response with the Nerlove Model: A Survey," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 18(2), pages 257-92, June.
    3. Maurice Obstfeld & Robert E. Cumby & John Huizinga, 1983. "Two-Step Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation in Models with Rational Expectations," NBER Technical Working Papers 0011, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Wallis, Kenneth F, 1980. "Econometric Implications of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 49-73, January.
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