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Impacts of Decreasing Ukrainian Wheat Supply, Agricultural Investments, and Labor Force on Global Wheat Market

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  • Koizumi, Tatsuji

Abstract

This study examines how decreasing wheat production and exports in 2022/23 and 2023/24, and agricultural knowledge & innovation systems and labor force in Ukraine, due to Russian aggression against Ukraine, will impact global wheat markets by considering future climate change. The simulation results show that the decrease in wheat production and exports, agricultural knowledge & innovation systems, and agricultural labor force in Ukraine will impact the global wheat market. This study concludes that the early recovery of agricultural knowledge & innovation systems, and the agricultural labor force in Ukraine will contribute to stabilizing international wheat price in the long term.

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  • Koizumi, Tatsuji, 2024. "Impacts of Decreasing Ukrainian Wheat Supply, Agricultural Investments, and Labor Force on Global Wheat Market," Japanese Journal of Agricultural Economics (formerly Japanese Journal of Rural Economics), Agricultural Economics Society of Japan (AESJ), vol. 26.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:jpjjre:348930
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.348930
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    1. An, Henry & Qiu, Feng & Zheng, Yanan, 2016. "How do export controls affect price transmission and volatility spillovers in the Ukrainian wheat and flour markets?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 142-150.
    2. Deininger, Klaus & Ali, Daniel Ayalew & Kussul, Nataliia & Shelestov, Andrii & Lemoine, Guido & Yailimova, Hanna, 2023. "Quantifying war-induced crop losses in Ukraine in near real time to strengthen local and global food security," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    3. Götz, Linde & Glauben, Thomas & Brümmer, Bernhard, 2013. "Wheat export restrictions and domestic market effects in Russia and Ukraine during the food crisis," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 214-226.
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