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Bayesian threshold adjustment in spatially integrated wheat markets in Russia

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  • Serebrennikov, Dmytro
  • Götz, Linde

Abstract

This paper studies spatial price transmission and integration of regional domestic wheat markets in Russia. An innovative approach to threshold estimation is applied to better capture model non-linearities associated with transaction costs and policy measures. The results show critical importance of distance that determines the speed at which price shocks are transmitted between the regional markets. Additionally, it is shown that the export ban for wheat in 2010/11 led to trade activation and faster price transmission inside the country. The effect of export ban was found to be enhanced by transport subsidies introduced to facilitate the distribution of grain in the wake of severe drought in certain production areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Serebrennikov, Dmytro & Götz, Linde, 2015. "Bayesian threshold adjustment in spatially integrated wheat markets in Russia," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205742, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea15:205742
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.205742
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barry K. Goodwin & Nicholas E. Piggott, 2001. "Spatial Market Integration in the Presence of Threshold Effects," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(2), pages 302-317.
    2. Götz, L. & Djuric, I. & Glauben, T., 2015. "Price Damping and Price Insulating Effects of Wheat Export Restrictions in Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 50, March.
    3. Serebrennikov, Dmytro & Glauben, Thomas & Goetz, Linde, 2014. "Spatial integration of Russian domestic wheat markets," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182754, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Götz, Linde & Glauben, Thomas & Brümmer, Bernhard, 2013. "Wheat export restrictions and domestic market effects in Russia and Ukraine during the food crisis," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 214-226.
    5. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    6. Jochen Meyer & Stephan von Cramon‐Taubadel, 2004. "Asymmetric Price Transmission: A Survey," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 581-611, November.
    7. Perron, P, 1993. "Erratum [The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock and the Unit Root Hypothesis]," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 248-249, January.
    8. Jolejole-Foreman, Maria Christina & Mallory, Mindy L. & Baylis, Katherine R., 2013. "Impact of Wheat and Rice Export Ban on Indian Market Integration," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150595, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
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    Cited by:

    1. Linde Götz & Feng Qiu & Jean-Philippe Gervais & Thomas Glauben, 2016. "Export Restrictions and Smooth Transition Cointegration: Export Quotas for Wheat in Ukraine," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(2), pages 398-419, June.
    2. Linde Götz & Ivan Djuric & Oleg Nivievskyi, 2016. "Regional Price Effects of Extreme Weather Events and Wheat Export Controls in Russia and Ukraine," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(3), pages 741-763, September.

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    Keywords

    Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; Marketing;
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