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Assessing The Financial Risks Of Diversified Coffee Production Systems: An Alternative Nonnormal Cdf Estimation Approach

Author

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  • Ramirez, Octavio A.
  • Sosa, Romeo

Abstract

Recently developed techniques are adapted and combined for the modeling and simulation of crop yields and prices that can be mutually correlated, exhibit heteroskedasticity or autocorrelation, and follow nonnormal probability density functions. The techniques are applied to the modeling and simulation of probability distribution functions for the returns of three tropical agroforestry systems for coffee production. The importance of using distribution functions that can more closely reflect the statistical behavior of yields and prices for risk analysis is discussed and illustrated.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramirez, Octavio A. & Sosa, Romeo, 2000. "Assessing The Financial Risks Of Diversified Coffee Production Systems: An Alternative Nonnormal Cdf Estimation Approach," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 25(01), July.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:30838
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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30838
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anderson, Jock R., 1974. "Simulation: Methodology and Application in Agricultural Economics," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 42(01), March.
    2. Bruce A. Babcock & David A. Hennessy, 1996. "Input Demand under Yield and Revenue Insurance," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(2), pages 416-427.
    3. McDonald, James B., 1989. "Partially adaptive estimation of ARMA time series models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 217-230.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ramirez, Octavio A. & Somarriba, Eduardo, 2000. "Risk And Returns Of Diversified Cropping Systems Under Nonnormal, Cross-, And Autocorrelated Commodity Price Structures," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 25(02), December.
    2. Javier Alejandro López Aguilar, 2016. "Efectos potenciales de los certificados ambientales sobre la cobertura forestal de los cafetales en México," Graduate theses (Spanish) TESG 012, CIDE, División de Economía.
    3. Fleming, Euan & Milne, Mary, 2003. "Bioeconomic modelling of the production and export of cocoa for price policy analysis in Papua New Guinea," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 483-505, May.
    4. repec:eee:ecolec:v:144:y:2018:i:c:p:129-138 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk and Uncertainty;

    Statistics

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