IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/isu/genres/1944.html

Systemic Risk in U.S. Crop Reinsurance Programs

Author

Listed:
  • Mason, Chuck
  • Hayes, Dermot J.
  • Lence, Sergio H.

Abstract

This study develops a method to estimate the probability density function of the Federal Risk Management Agency's (RMA's) net income from reinsuring crop insurance for corn, wheat, and soybeans. When calibrated using 1997 data, results from the advocated method show that in 1997 there was a 5% probability RMA would have had to reimburse at least $1 billion to insurance companies, and the fair value of RMA's insurance services to insurance firms in 1997 was $78.7 million. Key words: crop insurance, reinsurance, Risk Management Agency, systemic risk, value at risk

Suggested Citation

  • Mason, Chuck & Hayes, Dermot J. & Lence, Sergio H., 2003. "Systemic Risk in U.S. Crop Reinsurance Programs," Staff General Research Papers Archive 1944, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:1944
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/papers/paper_1944.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul Gallagher, 1987. "U.S. Soybean Yields: Estimation and Forecasting with Nonsymmetric Disturbances," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 69(4), pages 796-803.
    2. Richard E. Just & Quinn Weninger, 1999. "Are Crop Yields Normally Distributed?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(2), pages 287-304.
    3. Gallagher, Paul W., 1987. "U.S. Soybean Yields: Estimation and Forecasting with Non-Symmetric Disturbances," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10779, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    4. Octavio A. Ramírez, 1997. "Estimation and Use of a Multivariate Parametric Model for Simulating Heteroskedastic, Correlated, Nonnormal Random Variables: The Case of Corn Belt Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Yields," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(1), pages 191-205.
    5. Carl H. Nelson & Paul V. Preckel, 1989. "The Conditional Beta Distribution as a Stochastic Production Function," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(2), pages 370-378.
    6. Bruce A. Babcock & David A. Hennessy, 1996. "Input Demand under Yield and Revenue Insurance," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(2), pages 416-427.
    7. Ederington, Louis H, 1979. "The Hedging Performance of the New Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 157-170, March.
    8. Mario J. Miranda & Joseph W. Glauber, 1997. "Systemic Risk, Reinsurance, and the Failure of Crop Insurance Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(1), pages 206-215.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhu, Xiaohong, 2016. "New models to estimate costs of US farm programs," ISU General Staff Papers 201601010800006209, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    2. Phelippe-Guinvarc'h, Martial V. & Cordier, Jean E., 2006. "A private management strategy for the crop yield insurer: A theoretical approach and tests," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 35-46, August.
    3. Joshua D. Woodard & Philip Garcia, 2008. "Basis risk and weather hedging effectiveness," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 68(1), pages 99-117, May.
    4. Zhu, Xiaohong, 2016. "New models to estimate costs of US farm programs," ISU General Staff Papers 3547, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    5. Coble, Keith H. & Barnett, Barry J., 2008. "Implications of Integrated Commodity Programs and Crop Insurance," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(2), pages 431-442, August.
    6. Keith H. Coble & Robert Dismukes & Joseph W. Glauber, 2007. "Private Crop Insurers and the Reinsurance Fund Allocation Decision," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(3), pages 582-595.
    7. Woodard, Joshua D. & Garcia, Philip, 2008. "Weather Derivatives, Spatial Aggregation, and Systemic Risk: Implications for Reinsurance Hedging," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 33(01), pages 1-18, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arora, Gaurav & Agarwal, Sandip K., 2020. "Agricultural input use and index insurance adoption: Concept and evidence," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304508, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Chen, Xiaomei & Wang, H. Holly & Makus, Larry D., 2007. "Production Risk and Crop Insurance Effectiveness: Organic Versus Conventional Apples," SCC-76 Meeting, 2007, March 15-17, Gulf Shores, Alabama 9381, SCC-76: Economics and Management of Risk in Agriculture and Natural Resources.
    3. repec:isu:genstf:201501010800005371 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Jing Wang & Feng Fang & Qiang Zhang & Jinsong Wang & Yubi Yao & Wei Wang, 2016. "Risk evaluation of agricultural disaster impacts on food production in southern China by probability density method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(3), pages 1605-1634, September.
    5. Ozaki, Vitor Augusto & Olinda, Ricardo & Faria, Priscila Neves & Campos, Rogério Costa, 2014. "Estimation of the Agricultural Probability of Loss: evidence for soybean in Paraná State," Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural (RESR), Sociedade Brasileira de Economia e Sociologia Rural, vol. 52(01), January.
    6. repec:isu:genstf:201101010800002976 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Ying-Erh Chen & Barry K Goodwin, 2015. "Policy Design of Multi-Year Crop Insurance Contracts with Partial Payments," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(12), pages 1-15, December.
    8. Feng, Xiaoguang & Hayes, Dermot J., 2014. "Is Government Involvement Really Necessary: Implications for Systemic Risk and Crop Reinsurance Contracts," ISU General Staff Papers 201410010700001002, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    9. Mason, Charles Edwin, IV, 2000. "Estimation and attenuation of reinsurance risk in the crop insurance market," ISU General Staff Papers 2000010108000013703, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    10. Christopher N. Boyer & B. Wade Brorsen & Emmanuel Tumusiime, 2015. "Modeling skewness with the linear stochastic plateau model to determine optimal nitrogen rates," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 46(1), pages 1-10, January.
    11. Qiujie Zheng & H. Holly Wang & Qing Hua Shi, 2014. "Estimating bivariate yield distributions and crop insurance premiums using nonparametric methods," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(18), pages 2108-2118, June.
    12. repec:isu:genstf:201701010800006248 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Yaling Li & Fujin Yi & Yanjun Wang & Richard Gudaj, 2019. "The Value of El Niño-Southern Oscillation Forecasts to China’s Agriculture," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-23, August.
    14. Ozaki, Vitor & Campos, Rogério, 2017. "Reduzindo a Incerteza no Mercado de Seguros: Uma Abordagem via Informações de Sensoriamento Remoto e Atuária," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 71(4), December.
    15. Norwood, F. Bailey & Roberts, Matthew C. & Lusk, Jayson L., 2002. "How Are Crop Yields Distributed?," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19733, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    16. Jesse B. Tack & David Ubilava, 2015. "Climate and agricultural risk: measuring the effect of ENSO on U.S. crop insurance," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 46(2), pages 245-257, March.
    17. Makki Shiva S. & Somwaru Agapi L., 2007. "Assessing Adverse Selection in Crop Insurance Markets: An Application of Parametric and Nonparametric Methods," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-22, May.
    18. Li, Shuang & Ker, Alan P., 2013. "An Assessment of the Canadian Federal-Provincial Crop Production Insurance Program under Future Climate Change Scenarios in Ontario," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 151213, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    19. Liang, Weifang & Liu, Yong, 2023. "Rating Crop Insurance Contracts with Model Stacking of Gaussian Processes," 2023 Annual Meeting, July 23-25, Washington D.C. 335759, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    20. Ramirez, Octavio A. & Sosa, Romeo, 2000. "Risk Analysis Under Correlated, Non-Normal Price And Yield Probability Distributions," 2000 Annual meeting, July 30-August 2, Tampa, FL 21888, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    21. Park, Eunchun & Brorsen, B. Wade & Harri, Ardian, 2016. "Using Bayesian Spatial Smoothing and Extreme Value Theory to Develop Area-Yield Crop Insurance Rating," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235754, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    22. Ramirez, Octavio & Shonkwiler, J. Scott, 2016. "Some Comparative Statics for Evaluating the Performance of the US Crop Insurance Program," SCC-76 Meeting, 2016, March 17-19, Pensacola, Florida 233761, SCC-76: Economics and Management of Risk in Agriculture and Natural Resources.
    23. Coble, Keith H. & Heifner, Richard G. & Zuniga, Manuel, 2000. "Implications Of Crop Yield And Revenue Insurance For Producer Hedging," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 25(2), pages 1-21, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:isu:genres:1944. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Curtis Balmer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deiasus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.