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Systemic Risk in U.S. Crop and Revenue Insurance Programs

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  • Mason, Chuck
  • Hayes, Dermot J.
  • Lence, Sergio H.

Abstract

The present study estimates the probability density function of the Federal Risk Management Agency's (RMA) net income from reinsuring crop insurance for corn, wheat, and soybeans. Based on 1997 data, it is estimated that there is a 5 percent probability that RMA will need to reimburse at least $1 billion to insurance companies, and that the fair value of RMA's reinsurance services to insurance firms equals $78.7 million. In addition, various hedging strategies are examined for their potential to reduce RMA's reinsurance risk. The risk reduction achievable by hedging is appreciable, but use of derivative contracts alone is clearly no panacea.

Suggested Citation

  • Mason, Chuck & Hayes, Dermot J. & Lence, Sergio H., 2001. "Systemic Risk in U.S. Crop and Revenue Insurance Programs," Hebrew University of Jerusalem Archive 18481, Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:hebarc:18481
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.18481
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paul Gallagher, 1987. "U.S. Soybean Yields: Estimation and Forecasting with Nonsymmetric Disturbances," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 69(4), pages 796-803.
    2. Gallagher, Paul W., 1987. "U.S. Soybean Yields: Estimation and Forecasting with Non-Symmetric Disturbances," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10779, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Bruce A. Babcock & David A. Hennessy, 1996. "Input Demand under Yield and Revenue Insurance," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(2), pages 416-427.
    4. Octavio A. Ramírez, 1997. "Estimation and Use of a Multivariate Parametric Model for Simulating Heteroskedastic, Correlated, Nonnormal Random Variables: The Case of Corn Belt Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Yields," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(1), pages 191-205.
    5. Carl H. Nelson & Paul V. Preckel, 1989. "The Conditional Beta Distribution as a Stochastic Production Function," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(2), pages 370-378.
    6. Ederington, Louis H, 1979. "The Hedging Performance of the New Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 157-170, March.
    7. Mario J. Miranda & Joseph W. Glauber, 1997. "Systemic Risk, Reinsurance, and the Failure of Crop Insurance Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(1), pages 206-215.
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    2. Dmitry V. Vedenov & Mario J. Miranda & Robert Dismukes & Joseph W. Glauber, 2004. "Economic analysis of the standard reinsurance agreement," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 64(2), pages 119-134, November.
    3. Vedenov, Dmitry V., 2002. "Estimating Returns Under Standard Reinsurance Agreement," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19720, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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