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Modelling the impacts of macro-economic variables on the South African biofuels industry

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  • Meyer, Ferdinand H.
  • Strauss, P.G.
  • Funke, Thomas

Abstract

The production of biofuels from agricultural commodities has received much attention in recent years. Apart from a few private initiatives, biofuels have not seen a large scale, commercial production in South Africa to date. This article sketches a basic picture of the economic feasibility of biofuel production in South Africa, without any form of government support, at 2006 prices. It then takes the analysis a step further and with the aid of a set of scenarios, different potential outcomes, due to a range of possible policy implementation measures, are discussed and the results documented. The Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy’s (BFAP) sector model is used to simulate the impact of various options on the potential biofuels industry and other related industries during the course of the 2007 to 2015 period. This study shows that a lack of government support for the local biofuels industry could seriously affect its economic viability, especially in the early stages of the industry’s development. Additional issues, such as the impact on food and feed prices, also need to be taken into consideration.

Suggested Citation

  • Meyer, Ferdinand H. & Strauss, P.G. & Funke, Thomas, 2008. "Modelling the impacts of macro-economic variables on the South African biofuels industry," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 47(3), September.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:agreko:44027
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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44027
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Meyer, Ferdinand H. & Kirsten, Johann F., 2005. "Modelling the wheat sector in South Africa," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 44(2), June.
    2. Simla Tokgoz & Amani Elobeid & Jacinto F. Fabiosa & Dermot J. Hayes & Bruce A. Babcock & Tun-Hsiang (Edward) Yu & Fengxia Dong & Chad E. Hart & John C. Beghin, 2007. "Emerging Biofuels: Outlook of Effects on U.S. Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Markets," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications 07-sr101, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at Iowa State University.
    3. Tyner Wallace E., 2007. "Policy Alternatives for the Future Biofuels Industry," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 1-13, December.
    4. de Gorter, Harry & Just, David R., 2007. "The economics of U.S. ethanol import tariffs with a consumption mandate and tax credit," MPRA Paper 5504, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. Funke, Thomas & Klein, Peter G., 2010. "Explaining Investment Decisions in the South African Biofuels Industry: A Game Theoretic Approach," 2010 AAAE Third Conference/AEASA 48th Conference, September 19-23, 2010, Cape Town, South Africa 95978, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE);Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA).
    2. Sparks, G.D. & Ortmann, Gerald F. & Lagrange, L., 2010. "An Economic Evaluation of Soybean-Based Biodiesel Production on Commercial Farms in the Soybean-Producing Regions of KwaZulu-Natal: Some Preliminary Results," 2010 AAAE Third Conference/AEASA 48th Conference, September 19-23, 2010, Cape Town, South Africa 95980, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE);Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA).

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    Keywords

    Resource /Energy Economics and Policy;

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