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Labor Supply Shocks and Capital Accumulation: The Short- and Long-Run Effects of the Refugee Crisis in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Lorenzo Caliendo
  • Luca David Opromolla
  • Fernando Parro
  • Alessandro Sforza

Abstract

European countries experienced a large increase in labor supply due to the influx of Ukrainian refugees after the 2022 Russia invasion of Ukraine. We study its dynamic effects in a spatial model with forward-looking households of different skills, trade, and endogenous capital accumulation. We find that real GDP increases in Europe in the long term, with large distributional effects across countries and skill groups. In the short run, an increase in the supply of labor strains the use of capital structures that takes time to build. Over time, countries that build capital structures increase output, resulting in potential long-run benefits.

Suggested Citation

  • Lorenzo Caliendo & Luca David Opromolla & Fernando Parro & Alessandro Sforza, 2023. "Labor Supply Shocks and Capital Accumulation: The Short- and Long-Run Effects of the Refugee Crisis in Europe," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 113, pages 577-584, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:113:y:2023:p:577-84
    DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20231077
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Erhan Artuç & Shubham Chaudhuri & John McLaren, 2010. "Trade Shocks and Labor Adjustment: A Structural Empirical Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 1008-1045, June.
    2. Marcel P. Timmer & Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Gaaitzen J. Vries, 2015. "An Illustrated User Guide to the World Input–Output Database: the Case of Global Automotive Production," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 575-605, August.
    3. Lorenzo Caliendo & Maximiliano Dvorkin & Fernando Parro, 2019. "Trade and Labor Market Dynamics: General Equilibrium Analysis of the China Trade Shock," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(3), pages 741-835, May.
    4. Lorenzo Caliendo & Luca David Opromolla & Fernando Parro & Alessandro Sforza, 2021. "Goods and Factor Market Integration: A Quantitative Assessment of the EU Enlargement," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(12), pages 3491-3545.
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Arni & Pether H. Egger & Katharina Erhardt & Matthias Gubler & Philip Sauré, 2024. "Heterogeneous Impacts of Trade Shocks on Workers," Working Papers 2409, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz.
    2. Ulate, Mauricio & Vasquez, Jose P. & Zarate, Roman D., 2025. "Labor market effects of global supply chain disruptions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    3. Pierre-Louis Vézina & Cevat Giray Aksoy & Piotr Lewandowski, 2025. "Refugees and Entrepreneurship: Evidence from Ukrainians in Poland," IBS Working Papers 07/2025, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    4. A K M Zakaria, 2023. "A study of the challenges and opportunities in marketing and customer relationship management for microfinance institutions serving refugee entrepreneurs in Europe," Working Papers 0075, Silesian University, School of Business Administration.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J82 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor Standards - - - Labor Force Composition

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