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Labor Supply Shocks and Capital Accumulation: The Short and Long Run Effects of the Refugee Crisis in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Lorenzo Caliendo
  • Luca David Opromolla
  • Fernando Parro
  • Alessandro Sforza

Abstract

European countries experienced a large increase in labor supply due to the influx of Ukrainian refugees after the 2022 Russia invasion. We study its dynamic effects in a spatial model with forward-looking households of different skills, trade, and endogenous capital accumulation. We find that real GDP increases in Europe in the long term, with large distributional effects across countries and skill groups. In the short run, an increase in the supply of labor strains the use of capital structures that takes time to build. Over time, countries that build capital structures increase output, resulting in potential long run benefits.

Suggested Citation

  • Lorenzo Caliendo & Luca David Opromolla & Fernando Parro & Alessandro Sforza, 2023. "Labor Supply Shocks and Capital Accumulation: The Short and Long Run Effects of the Refugee Crisis in Europe," NBER Working Papers 30879, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30879
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    Cited by:

    1. Arni, Patrick & Egger, Peter & Erhardt, Katharina & Gubler, Matthias & Sauré, Philip, 2024. "Heterogeneous Impacts of Trade Shocks on Workers," IZA Discussion Papers 16895, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. A K M Zakaria, 2023. "A study of the challenges and opportunities in marketing and customer relationship management for microfinance institutions serving refugee entrepreneurs in Europe," Working Papers 0075, Silesian University, School of Business Administration.
    3. Ulate, Mauricio & Vasquez, Jose P. & Zarate, Roman D., 2025. "Labor market effects of global supply chain disruptions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions

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