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The Effects of Sin Taxes and Advertising Restrictions in a Dynamic Equilibrium

Author

Listed:
  • Rossi Abi-Rafeh
  • Pierre Dubois
  • Rachel Griffith
  • Martin O'Connell

Abstract

We develop a dynamic equilibrium model of firm competition to analyze the effects of counterfactual policies, such as taxes and advertising restrictions, on pricing, advertising, consumption, and welfare. Using micro-level data, we estimate how consumer exposure to television commercials influences product choice and model firms' strategic competition over advertising budgets and pricing. We exploit firms' practice of delegating advertising slot decisions to agencies to link consumer-level advertising variation to firms' strategic choices. Our results show that a sugar-sweetened beverage tax reduces advertising, while the additional impact of advertising restrictions is significantly weaker when a tax is already in place.

Suggested Citation

  • Rossi Abi-Rafeh & Pierre Dubois & Rachel Griffith & Martin O'Connell, 2026. "The Effects of Sin Taxes and Advertising Restrictions in a Dynamic Equilibrium," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 39-76, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmic:v:18:y:2026:i:3:p:39-76
    DOI: 10.1257/mic.20240380
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • L66 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Food; Beverages; Cosmetics; Tobacco
    • L82 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Entertainment; Media
    • M37 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Marketing and Advertising - - - Advertising

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