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Inversions in US Presidential Elections: 1836–2016

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  • Michael Geruso
  • Dean Spears
  • Ishaana Talesara

Abstract

Inversions—in which the popular vote winner loses the election—have occurred in four US presidential races. We show that rather than being statistical flukes, inversions have been ex ante likely since the early 1800s. In elections yielding a popular vote margin within 1 point (one-eighth of presidential elections), about 40 percent will be inversions in expectation. We show this conditional probability is remarkably stable across historical periods—despite differences in which groups voted, which states existed, and which parties participated. Our findings imply that the United States has experienced so few inversions merely because there have been so few elections (and fewer close elections).

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Geruso & Dean Spears & Ishaana Talesara, 2022. "Inversions in US Presidential Elections: 1836–2016," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 327-357, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejapp:v:14:y:2022:i:1:p:327-57
    DOI: 10.1257/app.20200210
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alan D. Crane & Andrew Koch & Leming Lin, 2024. "Real Effects of Markets on Politics: Evidence from US Presidential Elections," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 73-88, March.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • N41 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • N42 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

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