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World Population Prospects – A Long View

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  • Thomas Buettner

Abstract

[eng] There is no need to justify interest in population dynamics. But there is a pertinent need for sufficient, detailed and consistent evidence. Today, there is ample information about demographic trends for countries small, exceptionally large, and in-between. This was not always the case. Since the late 1940s, the United Nations Population Division endeavored to collect (often sparse) evidence for an increasingly complete picture known as World Population Prospects. Its evolution, through 26 revisions, is the topic of this article. It starts with the historical context, followed by brief discussions of the demographic components of change: fertility, mortality and (net) migration. Based on a reconstruction of past trends (or estimates), the Populations Division projects the population of today 235 countries or areas; the world’s population could reach between 9.4 to 12.7 billion people, with a median of 10.9 billion. The article closes with suggestions about further improvements.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Buettner, 2020. "World Population Prospects – A Long View," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 520-521, pages 9-27.
    • Handle: RePEc:nse:ecosta:ecostat_2020_520d_2
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.24187/ecostat.2020.520d.2030
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lutz, Wolfgang & Butz, William P. & KC, Samir (ed.), 2014. "World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198703167.
    2. Jonathan J. Azose & Adrian E. Raftery, 2019. "Estimation of emigration, return migration, and transit migration between all pairs of countries," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 116(1), pages 116-122, January.
    3. Guy Abel, 2013. "Estimating global migration flow tables using place of birth data," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(18), pages 505-546.
    4. Wolfgang Lutz & Warren Sanderson & Sergei Scherbov, 2001. "The end of world population growth," Nature, Nature, vol. 412(6846), pages 543-545, August.
    5. Anonymous, 2015. "Letter from the Editor," Management and Organization Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(4), pages 575-578, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jane N. O’Sullivan, 2023. "Demographic Delusions: World Population Growth Is Exceeding Most Projections and Jeopardising Scenarios for Sustainable Futures," World, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-24, September.
    2. Koffi Pacome Kouame & Raj Kishan Agrahari & Noren Singh Konjengbam & Hiroyuki Koyama & Yuriko Kobayashi, 2024. "Ability of Nutrient Management and Molecular Physiology Advancements to Overcome Abiotic Stress: A Study on Sub-Saharan African Crops," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-21, February.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health

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