IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org//a/nse/ecosta/ecostat_2020_520d_2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

World Population Prospects – A Long View

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Buettner

Abstract

[eng] There is no need to justify interest in population dynamics. But there is a pertinent need for sufficient, detailed and consistent evidence. Today, there is ample information about demographic trends for countries small, exceptionally large, and in-between. This was not always the case. Since the late 1940s, the United Nations Population Division endeavored to collect (often sparse) evidence for an increasingly complete picture known as World Population Prospects. Its evolution, through 26 revisions, is the topic of this article. It starts with the historical context, followed by brief discussions of the demographic components of change: fertility, mortality and (net) migration. Based on a reconstruction of past trends (or estimates), the Populations Division projects the population of today 235 countries or areas; the world’s population could reach between 9.4 to 12.7 billion people, with a median of 10.9 billion. The article closes with suggestions about further improvements.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Buettner, 2020. "World Population Prospects – A Long View," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 520-521, pages 9-27.
  • Handle: RePEc:nse:ecosta:ecostat_2020_520d_2
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.24187/ecostat.2020.520d.2030
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/fichier/4997857/02-ES-520-521_Buettner-EN.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/https://doi.org/10.24187/ecostat.2020.520d.2030?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lutz, Wolfgang & Butz, William P. & KC, Samir (ed.), 2014. "World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198703167.
    2. Jonathan J. Azose & Adrian E. Raftery, 2019. "Estimation of emigration, return migration, and transit migration between all pairs of countries," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 116(1), pages 116-122, January.
    3. Guy Abel, 2013. "Estimating global migration flow tables using place of birth data," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(18), pages 505-546.
    4. Wolfgang Lutz & Warren Sanderson & Sergei Scherbov, 2001. "The end of world population growth," Nature, Nature, vol. 412(6846), pages 543-545, August.
    5. Anonymous, 2015. "Letter from the Editor," Management and Organization Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(4), pages 575-578, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jane N. O’Sullivan, 2023. "Demographic Delusions: World Population Growth Is Exceeding Most Projections and Jeopardising Scenarios for Sustainable Futures," World, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-24, September.
    2. Koffi Pacome Kouame & Raj Kishan Agrahari & Noren Singh Konjengbam & Hiroyuki Koyama & Yuriko Kobayashi, 2024. "Ability of Nutrient Management and Molecular Physiology Advancements to Overcome Abiotic Stress: A Study on Sub-Saharan African Crops," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-21, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Berlemann, Michael & Haustein, Erik & Steinhardt, Max F., 2021. "From Stocks to Flows – Evidence for the Climate-Migration-Nexus," IZA Discussion Papers 14450, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Meng Xu & Helge Brunborg & Joel E. Cohen, 2017. "Evaluating multi-regional population projections with Taylor’s law of mean–variance scaling and its generalisation," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 79-99, March.
    3. Warren C Sanderson & Sergei Scherbov & Patrick Gerland, 2017. "Probabilistic population aging," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(6), pages 1-12, June.
    4. Raftery, Adrian E. & Ševčíková, Hana, 2023. "Probabilistic population forecasting: Short to very long-term," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 73-97.
    5. Qing Guan & James Raymer & Juliet Pietsch, 2022. "Estimating International Migration Flows for Pacific Island Countries: A Research Brief," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(5), pages 1917-1930, October.
    6. Del Fava, Emanuele & Wiśniowsk, Arkadiusz & Zagheni, Emilio, 2019. "Modelling International Migration Flows by Integrating Multiple Data Sources," SocArXiv cma5h, Center for Open Science.
    7. James Raymer & Xujing Bai & Nan Liu, 2020. "The dynamic complexity of Australia’s immigration and emigration flows from 1981 to 2016," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 213-242, September.
    8. Jie Chen & Yujie Liu & Ermei Zhang & Tao Pan & Yanhua Liu, 2022. "Estimating China’s Population over 21st Century: Spatially Explicit Scenarios Consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-17, February.
    9. Thu Hien DAO & Frédéric DOCQUIER & Mathilde MAUREL & Pierre SCHAUS, 2017. "Global Migration in the 20th and 21st Centuries: the Unstoppable Force of Demography," Working Paper 96d89f28-0e80-4703-9b33-6, Agence française de développement.
    10. Els Bekaert & Amelie F. Constant & Killian Foubert & Ilse Ruyssen, 2021. "Longing for Which Home: Evidence from Global Aspirations to Stay, Return or Migrate Onwards," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 21/1028, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    11. David Lam, 2011. "How the World Survived the Population Bomb: Lessons From 50 Years of Extraordinary Demographic History," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(4), pages 1231-1262, November.
    12. Dramane Coulibaly & Blaise Gnimassoun & Valérie Mignon, 2018. "The tale of two international phenomena: International migration and global imbalances," Working Papers 2018-02, CEPII research center.
    13. Olivera, Javier & Andreoli, Francesco & Leist, Anja K. & Chauvel, Louis, 2018. "Inequality in old age cognition across the world," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 179-188.
    14. Glen RAYP & Ilse RUYSSSEN & Samuel STANDAERT, 2024. "Selecting only the best and brightest? An assessment of migration policy selectivity and its effectiveness," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 90(3), pages 352-383, September.
    15. Peter Huber & Doris Oberdabernig & Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Anna Raggl, 2015. "Migration in an Ageing Europe: What are the Challenges? WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 79," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 57886, October.
    16. Sophie Drogué & Clotilde Grandval & Jean-Christophe Bureau & Hervé Guyomard & Laurence Roudart, 2006. "Panorama des analyses prospectives sur l'évolution de la sécurité alimentaire mondiale à l'horizon 2020-2030," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/54558, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    17. Chakravorty, Ujjayant & Magne, Bertrand & Moreaux, Michel, 2006. "A Hotelling model with a ceiling on the stock of pollution," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2875-2904, December.
    18. Muhammad Asif Wazir & Anne Goujon, 2019. "Assessing the 2017 Census of Pakistan Using Demographic Analysis: A Sub-National Perspective," VID Working Papers 1906, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    19. Soheil Shayegh & Johannes Emmerling & Massimo Tavoni, 2022. "International Migration Projections across Skill Levels in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-33, April.
    20. Bilal Barakat & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, 2017. "Credit where credit is due: an approach to education returns based on Shapley values," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(5), pages 533-541, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nse:ecosta:ecostat_2020_520d_2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Veronique Egloff (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inseefr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.