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A Theory of Commodity Price Fluctuations

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Cited by:

  1. Lautier, Delphine & Raynaud, Franck, 2011. "Statistical properties of derivatives: A journey in term structures," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(11), pages 2009-2019.
  2. Sklavos, Konstantinos & Dam, Lammertjan & Scholtens, Bert, 2013. "The liquidity of energy stocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 168-175.
  3. repec:dau:papers:123456789/13631 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Guerra Vallejos, Ernesto & Bobenrieth Hochfarber, Eugenio & Bobenrieth Hochfarber, Juan & Wright, Brian D., 2021. "Solving dynamic stochastic models with multiple occasionally binding constraints," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
  5. Lence, Sergio H., 2002. "Do Futures Benefit Farmers Who Adopt Them?," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19768, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  6. Christophe Gouel, 2012. "Agricultural Price Instability: A Survey Of Competing Explanations And Remedies," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 129-156, February.
  7. Christophe Gouel, 2020. "The Value of Public Information in Storable Commodity Markets: Application to the Soybean Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(3), pages 846-865, May.
  8. Cesar Revoredo, 2000. "On The Solution Of The Dynamic Rational Expectations Commodity Storage Model In The Presence Of Stockholding By Speculators And Processors," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 42, Society for Computational Economics.
  9. Hervé Ott, 2014. "Extent and possible causes of intrayear agricultural commodity price volatility," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(2), pages 225-252, March.
  10. Chambers, Marcus J & Bailey, Roy E, 1996. "A Theory of Commodity Price Fluctuations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 924-957, October.
  11. Clare Kelly & Gauthier Lanot, 2003. "Analytical Results for a Model of Periodic Consumption," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2003/01, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University.
  12. Richter, Martin & Sørensen, Carsten, 2002. "Stochastic Volatility and Seasonality in Commodity Futures and Options: The Case of Soybeans," Working Papers 2002-4, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Finance.
  13. Xie, Yang & Zilberman, David, 2015. "Water-Storage Capacities versus Water-Use Efficiency: Substitutes or Complements?," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211894, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  14. Ai, Chunrong & Chatrath, Arjun & Song, Frank, 2007. "A semiparametric estimation of the optimal hedge ratio," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 366-381, May.
  15. Creti, Anna & Villeneuve, Bertrand, 2008. "Equilibrium Storage in a Markov Economy," MPRA Paper 11944, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Hyun Jin & Darren Frechette, 2004. "A new t-test for the R/S analysis and long memory in agricultural commodity prices," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(11), pages 661-667.
  17. Anna Creti & Bertrand Villeneuve, 2013. "Commodity storage with durable shocks : A simple Markovian model," Post-Print hal-01517436, HAL.
  18. Chi Truong, 2012. "An Analysis of Storage Capacity Reallocation Impacts on the Irrigation Sector," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 51(1), pages 141-159, January.
  19. ap Gwilym, Rhys & Ebrahim, M. Shahid & El Alaoui, Abdelkader O. & Rahman, Hamid & Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2020. "Financial frictions and the futures pricing puzzle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 358-371.
  20. John T. Cuddington & Rodney Ludema & Shamila A Jayasuriya, 2002. "Prebisch-Singer Redux," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 140, Central Bank of Chile.
    • Cuddington, John T. & Ludema, Rodney & Jayasuriya, Shamila A, 2002. "Prebisch-Singer Redux," Working Papers 15857, United States International Trade Commission, Office of Economics.
  21. Shafiqur Rahman & M. Shahid Ebrahim, 2005. "The Futures Pricing Puzzle," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 35, Society for Computational Economics.
  22. Christophe Gouel & Qingyin Ma & John Stachurski, 2023. "Interest Rate Dynamics and Commodity Prices," Working Papers 2023-21, CEPII research center.
  23. Coleman, Andrew, 2005. "Storage, transport and the law of one price: evidence from nineteenth century U.S. corn markets," 46th Annual Transportation Research Forum, Washington, D.C., March 6-8, 2005 208149, Transportation Research Forum.
  24. Nicolas Legrand, 2019. "The Empirical Merit Of Structural Explanations Of Commodity Price Volatility: Review And Perspectives," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 639-664, April.
  25. repec:dau:papers:123456789/14413 is not listed on IDEAS
  26. Zolotko, Mikhail & Okhrin, Ostap, 2014. "Modelling the general dependence between commodity forward curves," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 284-296.
  27. Sergio H. Lence, 2009. "Do Futures Benefit Farmers?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(1), pages 154-167.
  28. Pieroni, Luca & Ricciarelli, Matteo, 2008. "Modelling dynamic storage function in commodity markets: Theory and evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 1080-1092, September.
  29. Sergio H. Lence & Dermot J. Hayes, 2002. "U.S. Farm Policy and the Volatility of Commodity Prices and Farm Revenues," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(2), pages 335-351.
  30. Evans, Lewis & Guthrie, Graeme, 2007. "Commodity Price Behavior With Storage Frictions," Working Paper Series 19065, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
  31. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11383 is not listed on IDEAS
  32. Martínez de Albeniz, Victor & Vendrell, Josep M., 2008. "A capacitated commodity trading model with market power," IESE Research Papers D/728, IESE Business School.
  33. Marcus J. Chambers & Roy E. Bailey, 1999. "A Statistical Analysis of Wheat Price Fluctuations in England: 1685–1850," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(3), pages 564-588, September.
  34. Ruijs, Arjan & Schweigman, Caspar & Lutz, Clemens, 2004. "The impact of transport- and transaction-cost reductions on food markets in developing countries: evidence for tempered expectations for Burkina Faso," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 31(2-3), pages 219-228, December.
  35. Issler, João Victor & Rodrigues, Claudia & Burjack, Rafael, 2014. "Using common features to understand the behavior of metal-commodity prices and forecast them at different horizons," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 310-335.
  36. Chitose, Atsushi & Weaver, Robert D., 2007. "Dynamics of Slaughter Weight Response to Market Price Changes for Japanese Beef Cattle," Japanese Journal of Agricultural Economics (formerly Japanese Journal of Rural Economics), Agricultural Economics Society of Japan (AESJ), vol. 9, pages 1-14.
  37. repec:fgv:epgewp:736 is not listed on IDEAS
  38. Symeonidis, Lazaros & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Brooks, Chris & Lazar, Emese, 2012. "Futures basis, inventory and commodity price volatility: An empirical analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2651-2663.
  39. Jaime Casassus & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Bryan R. Routledge, 2005. "Equilibrium Commodity Prices with Irreversible Investment and Non-Linear Technology," NBER Working Papers 11864, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  40. Carter, Colin A. & Revoredo-Giha, Cesar, 2000. "The Interaction of Working and Speculative Commodity Stocks," 2000 Annual meeting, July 30-August 2, Tampa, FL 21820, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  41. Jia, Yanyan & Fang, Yi & Jing, Zhongbo & Lin, Faqin, 2022. "Price connectedness and input–output linkages: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
  42. Nishimura, Kazuo & Stachurski, John, 2009. "Equilibrium storage with multiple commodities," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 80-96, January.
  43. Li, Huiyu & Stachurski, John, 2014. "Solving the income fluctuation problem with unbounded rewards," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 353-365.
  44. Nicolas Legrand & Christophe Gouel, 2022. "The Role of Storage in Commodity Markets: Indirect Inference Based on Grains Data," Working Papers hal-03809825, HAL.
  45. Anders B. Trolle & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2006. "Unspanned Stochastic Volatility and the Pricing of Commodity Derivatives," NBER Working Papers 12744, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  46. Casassus, Jaime & Collin-Dufresne, Pierre & Routledge, Bryan R., 2018. "Equilibrium commodity prices with irreversible investment and non-linear technologies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 128-147.
  47. Considine, Timothy J. & Larson, Donald F., 2001. "Uncertainty and the convenience yield in crude oil price backwardations," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 533-548, September.
  48. Kornher, Lukas & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2013. "Food Price Volatility in Developing Countries and its Determinants," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universitaat zu Berlin, vol. 52(4), pages 1-32, November.
  49. Jason Stevens, 2013. "The benefits of storage and non‐renewable resource price dynamics," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 46(1), pages 239-265, February.
  50. John Stachurski, 2008. "Continuous State Dynamic Programming via Nonexpansive Approximation," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 31(2), pages 141-160, March.
  51. Molintas, Dominique Trual & Runas, Tchaika Eliah & Runas, Yanni Eliah & Runas, Tamiya, 2013. "Homo Economicus: Rare earth profiling," MPRA Paper 110203, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Oct 2021.
  52. Kelley, Clare & Lanot, Gauthier, 2002. "Consumption Patterns Over Pay Periods," Economic Research Papers 269469, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
  53. Asche, Frank & Misund, Bård & Oglend, Atle, 2016. "Determinants of the Atlantic salmon futures risk premium," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 6-17.
  54. Boschi, Melisso & Pieroni, Luca, 2009. "Aluminium market and the macroeconomy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 189-207.
  55. Diagne, Youssoupha S & Fall, Alsim, 2009. "La spéculation contribue- t- elle à expliquer la dynamique des prix des produits alimentaires au Sénégal ? [Does speculation explain food prices movements in Senegal?]," MPRA Paper 54880, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  56. Adusei Jumah, 2001. "The effects of dollar-sterling exchange rate volatility on futures markets for coffee and cocoa," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 28(3), pages 307-328, October.
  57. Christophe Gouel, 2013. "Comparing Numerical Methods for Solving the Competitive Storage Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 41(2), pages 267-295, February.
  58. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5384 is not listed on IDEAS
  59. Yu-Hong Liu & I-Ming Jiang & Shih-Cheng Lee & Yu-Ting Chen, 2011. "The Valuation Of Reset Options When Underlying Assets Are Autocorrelated," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 5(2), pages 95-114.
  60. Rabault, Guillaume, 2002. "When do borrowing constraints bind? Some new results on the income fluctuation problem," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 217-245, February.
  61. Conte, Bruno & Piemontese, Lavinia & Tapsoba, Augustin, 2023. "The power of markets: Impact of desert locust invasions on child health," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
  62. Li, Shanling & Murat, Alper & Huang, Wanzhen, 2009. "Selection of contract suppliers under price and demand uncertainty in a dynamic market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 198(3), pages 830-847, November.
  63. Dvir, Eyal & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2014. "Demand effects and speculation in oil markets: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 113-128.
  64. Xie, Yang & Zilberman, David, 2014. "The Economics of Water Project Capacities under Optimal Water Inventory Management," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt6c24636b, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
  65. Lingxiu Dong & Hong Liu, 2007. "Equilibrium Forward Contracts on Nonstorable Commodities in the Presence of Market Power," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 55(1), pages 128-145, February.
  66. ap Gwilym, Rhys & Ebrahim, M. Shahid, 2013. "Can position limits restrain ‘rogue’ trading?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 824-836.
  67. V., Ernesto Guerra & H., Eugenio Bobenrieth & H., Juan Bobenrieth & Wright, Brian D., 2023. "Endogenous thresholds in energy prices: Modeling and empirical estimation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
  68. repec:dau:papers:123456789/13630 is not listed on IDEAS
  69. Serena Ng & Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, 2000. "Explaining the Persistence of Commodity Prices," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 16(1/2), pages 149-171, October.
  70. Ivar Ekeland & Delphine Lautier & Bertrand Villeneuve, 2019. "Hedging pressure and speculation in commodity markets," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 68(1), pages 83-123, July.
  71. Ren'e Aid & Luciano Campi & Delphine Lautier, 2015. "On the spot-futures no-arbitrage relations in commodity markets," Papers 1501.00273, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2018.
  72. Ott, Herve, 2012. "Which factors drive which volatility in the grain sector?," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122486, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  73. Anders B. Trolle & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2009. "Unspanned Stochastic Volatility and the Pricing of Commodity Derivatives," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4423-4461, November.
  74. Knittel, Christopher R. & Roberts, Michael R., 2005. "An empirical examination of restructured electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 791-817, September.
  75. Power, Gabriel J. & Turvey, Calum G., 2010. "Long-range dependence in the volatility of commodity futures prices: Wavelet-based evidence," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(1), pages 79-90.
  76. Edouard Jaeck & Delphine Lautier, 2014. "Samuelson hypothesis and electricity derivative markets," Post-Print hal-01655800, HAL.
  77. Donia Aloui & Stéphane Goutte & Khaled Guesmi & Rafla Hchaichi, 2020. "COVID 19's impact on crude oil and natural gas S&P GS Indexes," Working Papers halshs-02613280, HAL.
  78. Calum G. Turvey & Jeffrey R. Stokes, 2008. "Market Structure and the Value of Agricultural Contingent Claims," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 56(1), pages 79-94, March.
  79. Power, Gabriel J. & Turvey, Calum G., 2008. "On Term Structure Models of Commodity Futures Prices and the Kaldor-Working Hypothesis," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37608, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  80. Peter Berling & Victor Martínez-de-Albéniz, 2011. "Optimal Inventory Policies when Purchase Price and Demand Are Stochastic," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 59(1), pages 109-124, February.
  81. Juan R. A. Bobenrieth & Eugenio S. A. Bobenrieth & Andrés F. Villegas & Brian D. Wright, 2022. "Estimation of Endogenous Volatility Models with Exponential Trends," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(15), pages 1-27, July.
  82. Gruenspecht, Howard K., 2002. "Regulatory Tailoring, Reliability, and Price Volatility with Stochastic Breakdowns," Discussion Papers 10781, Resources for the Future.
  83. Seifert, Ralf W. & Thonemann, Ulrich W. & Hausman, Warren H., 2004. "Optimal procurement strategies for online spot markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 152(3), pages 781-799, February.
  84. Kleppe, Tore Selland & Oglend, Atle, 2017. "Estimating the competitive storage model: A simulated likelihood approach," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 4(C), pages 39-56.
  85. Delphine Lautier & Yves Simon, 2004. "La volatilité des prix des matières premières," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 74(1), pages 45-84.
  86. Gleich, Benedikt & Achzet, Benjamin & Mayer, Herbert & Rathgeber, Andreas, 2013. "An empirical approach to determine specific weights of driving factors for the price of commodities—A contribution to the measurement of the economic scarcity of minerals and metals," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 350-362.
  87. Chatrath, Arjun & Adrangi, Bahram & Dhanda, Kanwalroop Kathy, 2002. "Are commodity prices chaotic?," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 123-137, August.
  88. He, Xue-Zhong & Westerhoff, Frank H., 2005. "Commodity markets, price limiters and speculative price dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(9), pages 1577-1596, September.
  89. Wang, Shu & Zhou, Baicheng & Gao, Tianshu, 2023. "Speculation or actual demand? The return spillover effect between stock and commodity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
  90. Mu, Xiaoyi, 2007. "Weather, storage, and natural gas price dynamics: Fundamentals and volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 46-63, January.
  91. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5528 is not listed on IDEAS
  92. Evans, Lewis & Guthrie, Graeme, 2007. "Commodity Price Behavior With Storage Frictions," Working Paper Series 3966, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
  93. Jin, Hyun Joung & Frechette, Darren L., 2002. "Fractal Geometry In Agricultural Cash Price Dynamics," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19696, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  94. Bu, Hui, 2014. "Effect of inventory announcements on crude oil price volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 485-494.
  95. Chiou Wei, Song Zan & Zhu, Zhen, 2006. "Commodity convenience yield and risk premium determination: The case of the U.S. natural gas market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 523-534, July.
  96. Ye, Michael & Zyren, John & Shore, Joanne, 2006. "Forecasting short-run crude oil price using high- and low-inventory variables," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 2736-2743, November.
  97. Chaudhry, Muhammad Imran & Katchova, Ani & Miranda, Mario Javier, 2016. "Examining pricing mechanics in the poultry value chain - empirical evidence from Pakistan," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235953, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  98. Song-Zan Chiou-Wei & Sheng-Hung Chen & Wei-Hung Chen, 2023. "Asymmetric Effects of Prices and Storage on Rig Counts: Evidence from the US Natural Gas and Crude Oil Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-25, August.
  99. Tomek, William G., 2000. "Commodity Prices Revisited," Staff Papers 121146, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
  100. Tomek, William G. & Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa, 2000. "Risk Management In Agricultural Markets: A Survey," 2000 Producer Marketing and Risk Management Conference, January 13-14, Orlando, FL 19580, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  101. Chiou-Wei, Song-Zan & Chen, Sheng-Hung & Zhu, Zhen, 2020. "Natural gas price, market fundamentals and hedging effectiveness," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 321-337.
  102. Marvasti, Akbar & Lamberte, Antonio, 2016. "Commodity price volatility under regulatory changes and disaster," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 355-361.
  103. Lewis Evans & Graeme Guthrie, 2009. "How Options Provided by Storage Affect Electricity Prices," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 75(3), pages 681-702, January.
  104. repec:vuw:vuwscr:19065 is not listed on IDEAS
  105. Severin Borenstein & Meghan Busse & Ryan Kellogg, 2007. "Principal-agent Incentives, Excess Caution, and Market Inefficiency: Evidence From Utility Regulation," NBER Working Papers 13679, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  106. Delphine Lautier & Franck Raynaud, 2014. "Information Flows in the term structure of commodity prices," Post-Print hal-01655842, HAL.
  107. Hu, Min & Zhang, Dayong & Ji, Qiang & Wei, Lijian, 2020. "Macro factors and the realized volatility of commodities: A dynamic network analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
  108. Hélyette Geman & Vu-Nhat Nguyen, 2005. "Soybean Inventory and Forward Curve Dynamics," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(7), pages 1076-1091, July.
  109. Tomek, William G., 2000. "Commodity Prices Revisited," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 29(2), pages 1-13, October.
  110. Frode Brevik & Axel Kind, 2004. "What is going on in the oil market?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 18(4), pages 442-457, December.
  111. Ivar Ekeland & Delphine Lautier & Bertrand Villeneuve, 2013. "A simple equilibrium model for a commodity market with spot trades and futures contracts," Post-Print hal-01655807, HAL.
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