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Using option prices to estimate realignment probabilities in the European Monetary System: the case of sterling-mark

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Jose A. Lopez & Christian Walter, 1997. "Is implied correlation worth calculating? Evidence from foreign exchange options and historical data," Research Paper 9730, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  2. Mundaca, Gabriela, 2003. "A Drift of the "Drift Adjustment Method"," Memorandum 16/2002, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  3. Chalamandaris, Georgios & Tsekrekos, Andrianos E., 2010. "Predictable dynamics in implied volatility surfaces from OTC currency options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1175-1188, June.
  4. Clement, E. & Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A., 2000. "Econometric specification of the risk neutral valuation model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 117-143.
  5. Mun, Kyung-Chun & Morgan, George Emir, 2003. "Risk premia on foreign exchange: a direct approach," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 231-250, July.
  6. Halil Ibrahim Aydin & Ahmet Degerli & Pinar Ozlu, 2010. "Recovering Risk-Neutral Densities from Exchange Rate Options: Evidence in Turkey (Kur Opsiyonlarindan Riske Duyarsiz Yogunluk Fonksiyonu Cikarimi: Turkiye Ornegi)," Working Papers 1003, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  7. Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2000. "Reading the smile: the message conveyed by methods which infer risk neutral densities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 885-915, December.
  8. Değerli, Ahmet & Fendoğlu, Salih, 2015. "Reserve option mechanism as a stabilizing policy tool: Evidence from exchange rate expectations," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 166-179.
  9. Campa, Jose Manuel & Chang, P. H. Kevin, 1998. "The forecasting ability of correlations implied in foreign exchange options," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 855-880, December.
  10. Fornari, F. & Violi, R., 1998. "The Probability Density Function of Interest Rates Implied in the Price of Options," Papers 339, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  11. Soderlind, Paul & Svensson, Lars, 1997. "New techniques to extract market expectations from financial instruments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 383-429, October.
  12. Carvalho, Augusto & Guimaraes, Bernardo, 2018. "State-controlled companies and political risk: Evidence from the 2014 Brazilian election," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 66-78.
  13. Jurczenko, Emmanuel & Maillet, Bertrand & Negrea, Bogdan, 2002. "Revisited multi-moment approximate option pricing models: a general comparison (Part 1)," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24950, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  14. Haas, Markus & Mittnik, Stefan & Mizrach, Bruce, 2006. "Assessing central bank credibility during the ERM crises: Comparing option and spot market-based forecasts," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 28-54, April.
  15. Gomez-Puig, Marta & Montalvo, JoseG., 1997. "A new indicator to assess the credibility of the EMS," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1511-1535, August.
  16. Campa, Jose M. & Chang, P. H. Kevin & Refalo, James F., 2002. "An options-based analysis of emerging market exchange rate expectations: Brazil's Real Plan, 1994-1999," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 227-253, October.
  17. Darvas, Zsolt, 1999. "Az árfolyamsávok empirikus modelljei és a devizaárfolyam sávon belüli előrejelezhetetlensége [Empirical models of exchange rate target zones]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 507-529.
  18. Adrien Alvero & Andreas M. Fischer, 2016. "Exchange rate floor and central bank balance sheets: Simple spillover tests of the Swiss franc," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 67(02), pages 31-50, August.
  19. Bernardo Guimaraes, 2008. "Vulnerability of Currency Pegs: Evidence from Brazil," CEP Discussion Papers dp0871, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  20. Bødskov Andersen, Allan & Wagener, Tom, 2002. "Extracting risk neutral probability densities by fitting implied volatility smiles: some methodological points and an application to the 3M Euribor futures option prices," Working Paper Series 0198, European Central Bank.
  21. René Lalonde, 1999. "The Information Content of Interest Rate Futures Options," Staff Working Papers 99-15, Bank of Canada.
  22. Martin Cincibuch, 2002. "Distributions Implied by Exchange Traded Options: A Ghost’s Smile?," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp200, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
  23. Iain J. Clark & Saeed Amen, 2017. "Implied Distributions from GBPUSD Risk-Reversals and Implication for Brexit Scenarios," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-17, July.
  24. Carr, Peter & Wu, Liuren, 2007. "Theory and evidence on the dynamic interactions between sovereign credit default swaps and currency options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2383-2403, August.
  25. Georgios Chalamandaris & Andrianos Tsekrekos, 2013. "Explanatory Factors and Causality in the Dynamics of Volatility Surfaces Implied from OTC Asian–Pacific Currency Options," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 41(3), pages 327-358, March.
  26. Perotti, Enrico & Driessen, Joost, 2004. "Confidence Building on Euro Conversion: Theory and Evidence from Currency Options," CEPR Discussion Papers 4180, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  27. Cho-Hoi Hui & Chi-Fai Lo, 2008. "A Note on Estimating Realignment Probabilities -- A First-Passage-Time Approach," Working Papers 0809, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
  28. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Chang, Bo Young, 2013. "Forecasting with Option-Implied Information," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 581-656, Elsevier.
  29. Antoine Bouveret, 2010. "Politiques économiques, dynamique et équilibre de long terme du taux de change," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/53r60a8s3ku, Sciences Po.
  30. Urban J. Jermann, 2017. "Financial Markets' Views about the Euro–Swiss Franc Floor," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(2-3), pages 553-565, March.
  31. Funke, Michael & Loermann, Julius & Tsang, Andrew, 2017. "The information content in the offshore Renminbi foreign-exchange option market: Analytics and implied USD/CNH densities," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2017, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
  32. Urban J. Jermann & Bin Wei & Vivian Z. Yue, 2022. "The Two‐Pillar Policy for the RMB," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(6), pages 3093-3140, December.
  33. José Manuel Campa & P.H. Kevin Chang & James F. Refalo, 1999. "An Options-Based Analysis of Emerging Market Exchange Rate Expectations: Brazil's Real Plan, 1994-1997," Working Papers 99-08, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  34. Chang, Kook-Hyun & Kim, Myung-Jig, 2001. "Jumps and time-varying correlations in daily foreign exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 611-637, October.
  35. Chalamandaris, Georgios & Tsekrekos, Andrianos E., 2011. "How important is the term structure in implied volatility surface modeling? Evidence from foreign exchange options," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 623-640, June.
  36. Dean Corbae & Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller, 1998. "Endogenous realignments and the sustainability of a target," Working Papers 1994-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  37. Maltritz, Dominik & Eichler, Stefan, 2010. "Currency crisis prediction using ADR market data: An options-based approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 858-884, October.
  38. Guimaraes, Bernardo, 2007. "Currency Crisis Triggers: Sunspots or Thresholds?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6487, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  39. Bliss, Robert R. & Panigirtzoglou, Nikolaos, 2002. "Testing the stability of implied probability density functions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 381-422, March.
  40. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/53r60a8s3kup1vc9kd52ge69h is not listed on IDEAS
  41. Marcello Pericoli, 2005. "Can option smiles forecast changes in interest rates? An application to the US, the UK and the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 545, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  42. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
  43. Nakamura, Hisashi & Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 1999. "Extracting Market Expectations from Option Prices: Case Studies in Japanese Option Markets," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 17(1), pages 1-43, May.
  44. Annalisa Molino & Carlo Sala, 2021. "Forecasting value at risk and conditional value at risk using option market data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(7), pages 1190-1213, November.
  45. Michael Funke & Julius Loermann & Richhild Moessner, 2017. "The discontinuation of the EUR/CHF minimum exchange rate in January 2015: was it expected?," BIS Working Papers 652, Bank for International Settlements.
  46. Dahlquist, Magnus & Gray, Stephen F., 2000. "Regime-switching and interest rates in the European monetary system," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 399-419, April.
  47. Bernardino Adão & Jorge Barros Luís & Nuno Cassola, 1998. "Information on expectations about the escudo convergence from the volatility implied in currency options," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  48. Hui, C.H. & Lo, C.F., 2009. "A note on estimating realignment probabilities - A first-passage-time approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 804-812, September.
  49. Ruijun Bu & Kaddour Hadri, 2005. "Estimating the Risk Neutral Probability Density Functions Natural Spline versus Hypergeometric Approach Using European Style Options," Working Papers 200510, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
  50. David VanderLinden & Kristijan Nikolov, 2005. "Enhancing returns on yen: minimizing risk reversal costs," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(17), pages 1203-1211.
  51. Martin Cincibuch & David Vavra, 2004. "Testing for the uncovered interest parity using distributions implied by FX options," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 16, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  52. Driessen, Joost & Perotti, Enrico, 2011. "Confidence building on Euro convergence: Evidence from currency options," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 474-491, April.
  53. Naszódi, Anna, 2002. "A sávos árfolyamú deviza megközelítése opciók segítségével [The option-based description of the exchange rate in a target-zone system]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 25-44.
  54. Alexandra Janssen & Rahel Studer, 2014. "The Swiss franc's honeymoon," ECON - Working Papers 170, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised Jan 2017.
  55. Robert R Bliss & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, 2000. "Testing the stability of implied probability density functions," Bank of England working papers 114, Bank of England.
  56. Bernardo Guimaraes, 2005. "Market Expectations and Currency Crises: Theory and Empirics," 2005 Meeting Papers 174, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  57. Jose M. Campa & P.H. Kevin Chang & Robert L. Reider, 1997. "Implied Exchange Rate Distributions: Evidence from OTC Option Markets," NBER Working Papers 6179, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  58. repec:zbw:bofitp:2017_015 is not listed on IDEAS
  59. Marie Briere, 2006. "Market Reactions to Central Bank Communication Policies :Reading Interest Rate Options Smiles," Working Papers CEB 38, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  60. Cho-Hoi Hui & Tsz-Kin Chung & Chi-Fai Lo, 2013. "Using Interest Rate Derivative Prices to Estimate LIBOR-OIS Spread Dynamics and Systemic Funding Liquidity Shock Probabilities," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 20(2), pages 131-146, May.
  61. Antoine Bouveret, 2010. "Economic policies, long run equilibrium and exchange rate dynamics [Politiques économiques, dynamique et équilibre de long terme du taux de change]," SciencePo Working papers Main tel-04097866, HAL.
  62. Bogdan Negrea & Bertrand Maillet & Emmanuel Jurczenko, 2002. "Revisited Multi-moment Approximate Option," FMG Discussion Papers dp430, Financial Markets Group.
  63. Rzepkowski, Bronka, 2003. "The devaluation expectations in Hong Kong and their determinants," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 174-191, June.
  64. Martin Mandler, 2002. "Extracting Market Expectations from Option Prices: Two Case Studies in Market Perceptions of the ECB's Monetary Policy 1999/2000," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 138(II), pages 165-189, June.
  65. Birke, Melanie & Pilz, Kay F., 2007. "Nonparametric option pricing with no-arbitrage constraints," Technical Reports 2007,30, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
  66. Jondeau, E. & Rockinger, M., 1999. "Estimating Gram-Charlier Expansions with Positivity Constraints," Working papers 56, Banque de France.
  67. Bronka Rzepkowski, 2001. "Pouvoir prédictif de la volatilité implicite dans le prix des options de change," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 148(2), pages 71-97.
  68. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/53r60a8s3kup1vc9kd52ge69h is not listed on IDEAS
  69. Chalamandaris, Georgios & Tsekrekos, Andrianos E., 2009. "Common Factors and Causality in the Dynamics of Implied Volatility Surfaces: Evidence from the FX OTC Market," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 49-74.
  70. Gabriele Galati & Patrick Higgins & Owen Humpage & William Melick, 2007. "Option prices, exchange market intervention, and the higher moment expectations channel: a user's guide," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 225-247.
  71. Norman C. Miller, 2014. "Exchange Rate Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14981.
  72. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/53r60a8s3kup1vc9kd52ge69h is not listed on IDEAS
  73. Campa, Jose M. & Chang, P. H. Kevin & Reider, Robert L., 1998. "Implied exchange rate distributions: evidence from OTC option markets1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 117-160, February.
  74. Bronka Rzepkowski, 2000. "The Expectations of Hong Kong Dollar Devaluation and Their Determinants," Working Papers 2000-04, CEPII research center.
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