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The Probability Density Function of Interest Rates Implied in the Price of Options

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  • Fabio Fornari

    ()
    (Banca d'Italia)

  • Roberto Violi

    ()
    (Banca d'Italia)

Abstract

The paper contributes to the stochastic volatility literature by developing simulation schemes for the conditional distributions of the price of long term bonds and their variability based on non-standard distributional assumptions and volatility concepts; it illustrates the potential value of the information contained in the prices of options on long and short term lira interest rate futures for the conduct of monetary policy in Italy, at times when significant regime shifts have occured.

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File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/econo/temidi/td98/td339_98/td339en/tema_339_98.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 339.

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Date of creation: Oct 1998
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Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_339_98

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Web page: http://www.bancaditalia.it
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Keywords: stochastic models; statistical analysis; interest rates; financial market;

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References

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  1. Bossaerts, P. & Hillion, P., 1995. "Local Parametric Analysis of Hedging in Discrete Time," Discussion Paper 1995-23, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  2. David K. Backus & Stanley E. Zin, 1994. "Reverse Engineering the Yield Curve," Working Papers 94-09, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  3. Engle, Robert F. & Mustafa, Chowdhury, 1992. "Implied ARCH models from options prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 289-311.
  4. Nelson, Daniel B., 1990. "ARCH models as diffusion approximations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 7-38.
  5. Fabio Fornari & Antonio Mele, 1997. "Weak convergence and distributional assumptions for a general class of nonliner arch models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 205-227.
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Cited by:
  1. Stefano Siviero & Daniele Terlizzese & Ignazio Visco, 1999. "Are model-based inflation forecasts used in monetary policymaking? A case study," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 357, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  2. Marcello Pericoli, 2005. "Can option smiles forecast changes in interest rates? An application to the US, the UK and the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 545, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  3. Martin Mandler, 2002. "Extracting Market Expectations from Option Prices: Two Case Studies in Market Perceptions of the ECB's Monetary Policy 1999/2000," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 138(II), pages 165-189, June.

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