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The Probability Density Function of Interest Rates Implied in the Price of Options

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Author Info

  • Fornari, F.
  • Violi, R.

Abstract

The paper contributes to the stochastic volatility literature by developing simulation schemes for the conditional distributions of the price of long term bonds and their variability based on non-standard distributional assumptions and volatility concepts; it illustrates the potential value of the information contained in the prices of options on long and short term lira interest rate futures for the conduct of monetary policy in Italy, at times when significant regime shifts have occured.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi in its series Papers with number 339.

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Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:banita:339

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Banca d'Italia-Servizio Studi-Divisione Biblioteca e Pubblicazioni - Via N azionale, 91 -00184 Rome, Italy.
Web page: http://www.bancaditalia.it/
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Related research

Keywords: STOCHASTIC MODELS ; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS ; INTEREST RATE ; FINANCIAL MARKET;

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References

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  1. Nelson, Daniel B., 1990. "ARCH models as diffusion approximations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 7-38.
  2. Bossaerts, Peter & Hillion, Pierre, 1997. "Local parametric analysis of hedging in discrete time," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 243-272, November.
  3. Engle, Robert F. & Mustafa, Chowdhury, 1992. "Implied ARCH models from options prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 289-311.
  4. Fabio Fornari & Antonio Mele, 1997. "Weak convergence and distributional assumptions for a general class of nonliner arch models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 205-227.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Siviero, S. & Terlizzese, D. & Visco, I., 1999. "Are Model-Based Inflation Forecasts Used in Monetary Policymaking? A Case Study," Papers 357, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  2. Martin Mandler, 2002. "Extracting Market Expectations from Option Prices: Two Case Studies in Market Perceptions of the ECB's Monetary Policy 1999/2000," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 138(II), pages 165-189, June.
  3. Marcello Pericoli, 2005. "Can option smiles forecast changes in interest rates? An application to the US, the UK and the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 545, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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