This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

The Expectations of a Hong Kong Dollar Devaluation and their Determinants

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Bronka Rzepkowski
Abstract

During the Asian financial turmoil over the 1997-1998 period, only the Hong Kong dollar peg escaped the wave of huge devaluations which hit Asian currencies. But speculative pressures did not spare the Hong Kong currency board. Indeed, several attacks were launched against the Hong Kong dollar and the expectations of a devaluation fluctuated sharply over the period. The motivation of the paper is threefold. Three major conclusions can be drawn. First, only two channels of shock propagation are plainly robust and significant in explaining the formation of expectations on the HK dollar: the external effect, captured by the value of the dollar/yen exchange rate and the pure contagion relying on the reassessment of risk by international investors. Second, the presence of a double play is made clear. The impulse response functions underline the circularity of expectations: the expectations of a HK dollar devaluation fuelled speculation in the stock futures and options markets, which in turn was conducive to fears of an impending demise of the currency board. Third, the reflexivity in the formation of expectations led the HKMA to engage in unusual interventions, departing from its traditional free-market philosophy. All the discretionary measures adopted by the HKMA to break this self- fulfilling speculative scheme proved to be ineffective. In contrast, when the HKMA undertook reforms to introduce a more rule-based system in September 1998, it succeeded in dampening the pressures against the HK dollar.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.cepii.fr/anglaisgraph/workpap/pdf/2000/wp00-04.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 2000-04.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: Feb 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2000-04

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 9 rue Georges Pitard, 75740 Paris Cedex 15
Phone: 33 01 53 68 55 00
Fax: 33 01 53 68 55 01
Web page: http://www.cepii.fr
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: ().

Related research
Keywords: Currency Board; Hong Kong; speculative attack; probability density functions; contagion;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Ball, Clifford A. & Torous, Walter N., 1983. "A Simplified Jump Process for Common Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(01), pages 53-65, March. [Downloadable!]
  2. William R. Melick & Charles P. Thomas, 1996. "Using options prices to infer PDF'S for asset prices: an application to oil prices during the Gulf crisis," International Finance Discussion Papers 541, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  3. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Malz, Allan M., 1996. "Using option prices to estimate realignment probabilities in the European Monetary System: the case of sterling-mark," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 717-748, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Soderlind, Paul & Svensson, Lars, 1997. "New techniques to extract market expectations from financial instruments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 383-429, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "Contagion and Trade: Why are Currency Crises Regional," CEPR Discussion Papers 1947, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Melino, Angelo & Turnbull, Stuart M., 1990. "Pricing foreign currency options with stochastic volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 239-265. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Bates, David S, 1996. "Jumps and Stochastic Volatility: Exchange Rate Processes Implicit in Deutsche Mark Options," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 69-107. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Hull, John C & White, Alan D, 1987. " The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 281-300, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990. "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. repec:chb:bcchwp:07 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Bertola, Giuseppe & Svensson, Lars E O, 1991. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target Zone Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 513, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Philippe Jorion, 1988. "On Jump Processes in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(4), pages 427-445. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Campa, J.M. & Chang, P.H.K., 1995. "Arbitrage-Based Tests of Target Zone Credibility: Evidence from ERM Cross-Rate Options," Papers 95-25, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
    Other versions:
  15. Wiggins, James B., 1987. "Option values under stochastic volatility: Theory and empirical estimates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 351-372, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Yacine Ait-Sahalia & Andrew W. Lo, 1995. "Nonparametric Estimation of State-Price Densities Implicit in Financial Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 5351, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Breeden, Douglas T & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1978. "Prices of State-contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 621-51, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  20. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Garman, Mark B. & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1983. "Foreign currency option values," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 231-237, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. JosÈ B. Campa & P.H. Kevin Chang & Robert L. Reider, 1997. "ERM bandwidths for EMU and after: evidence from foreign exchange options," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 12(24), pages 53-89, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-43. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1995. "Contagious speculative attacks," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 45-63, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  25. Jeanne, Olivier, 1997. "Are currency crises self-fulfilling?: A test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 263-286, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? IDEAS also covers the most complete directory of Economics departments and institutes, EDIRC.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-18.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.