An Options-Based Analysis of Emerging Market Exchange Rate Expectations: Brazil's Real Plan, 1994-1999
AbstractThis paper uses currency option data from the BMF, the Commodities and Futures exchange in Sao Paulo, Brazil, to investigate market expectations on the Brazilian Real-U.S. dollar exchange rate from October 1994 through March 1999. Using options data, we derive implied probability density functions (PDF) for expected future exchange rates and thus measures of the credibility of the "crawling peg" and target zone ("maxiband") regimes governing the exchange rate.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros- in its series Papers with number 0006.
Length: 63 pages
Date of creation: 2000
Date of revision:
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Postal: Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros. Casado del Alisal, 5-28014 Madrid, Spain.
Web page: http://www.cemfi.es/
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EXCHANGE RATE ; FINANCIAL MARKET ; INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY;
Other versions of this item:
- Campa, Jose M. & Chang, P. H. Kevin & Refalo, James F., 2002. "An options-based analysis of emerging market exchange rate expectations: Brazil's Real Plan, 1994-1999," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 227-253, October.
- Campa, José Manuel & Chang, Kevin & Refalo, James F, 2000. "An Options-Based Analysis of Emerging Market Exchange Rate Expectations: Brazil’s Real Plan, 1994-1999," CEPR Discussion Papers 2611, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
- F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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- Maltritz, Dominik & Eichler, Stefan, 2010. "Currency crisis prediction using ADR market data: An options-based approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 858-884, October.
- Peter Christoffersen & Kris Jacobs & Bo Young Chang, 2011. "Forecasting with Option Implied Information," CREATES Research Papers 2011-46, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- Bernardo Guimaraes, 2008. "Vulnerability of Currency Pegs: Evidence from Brazil," CEP Discussion Papers dp0871, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
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