Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Output-Employment Relationship across Sectors: A Long- versus Short-Run Perspective

Contents:

Author Info

  • Sahin, Afsin
  • Tansel, Aysit
  • Berument, Hakan

Abstract

This paper investigates the nature of the output-employment relationship by using the Turkish quarterly data for the period from 1988 to 2008. Even if we fail to find a long-run relationship between aggregate output and total employment, there are long-run relationships for the aggregate output with non-agricultural employment and sectoral employment levels for seven of nine sectors that we consider. However, a further investigation for the output and employment relationship within a short-run perspective do not reveal statistically significant relationships for either total employment, or non-agriculture employment or the eight out of the nine sectors that we consider. Thus, it seems that sustainable growth is an essential economic agenda for employment generation concerning the sectors and that there is a long-run link but weak short run link with demand.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/46875/
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 46875.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 03 Nov 2011
Date of revision: 07 Jun 2012
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:46875

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Schackstr. 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2219
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-3900
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Output; Employment; Seasonal Cointegration;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Deepankar Basu & Duncan K. Foley, 2013. "Dynamics of output and employment in the US economy," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, vol. 37(5), pages 1077-1106.
  2. Dong He & Zhiwei Zhang & Wenlang Zhang, 2009. "How Large Will Be The Effect Of China'S Fiscal Stimulus Package On Output And Employment?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(5), pages 730-744, December.
  3. Mark J. Holmes & Brian Silverstone, 2005. "Okun's Law, Asymmetries and Jobless Recoveries in the United States: A Markov-Switching Approach," Working Papers in Economics, University of Waikato, Department of Economics 05/06, University of Waikato, Department of Economics.
  4. Christian Weber, 1997. "The paper-bill spread and Blanchard's version of Okun's law," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(7), pages 437-440.
  5. Costas Milas, 2000. "Employment, output and political business cycle effects in the Greek non-tradable sector," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 123-133.
  6. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990. "Seasonal integration and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238.
  7. H. Bhorat & J. Hodge, 1999. "Decomposing Shifts in Labour Demand in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 67(3), pages 155-168, 09.
  8. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-75, November.
  9. M. Upender, 2011. "Differential Output Elasticity Of Employment During Post-Economic Reform Period In The Indian Economy," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 56(02), pages 189-202.
  10. Villaverde, José & Maza, Adolfo, 2009. "The robustness of Okun's law in Spain, 1980-2004: Regional evidence," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 289-297.
  11. Nursel AYDINER-AVSAR & Özlem ONARAN, 2010. "The Determinants Of Employment: A Sectoral Analysis For Turkey," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 48(2), pages 203-231.
  12. Hakan Berument & Nukhet Dogan & Aysit Tansel, 2008. "Macroeconomic Policy and Unemployment by Economic Activity: Evidence from Turkey," ERC Working Papers 0803, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Apr 2008.
  13. Alfons Palangkaraya & Jongsay Yong, 2007. "Trade Liberalisation, Exit, and Output and Employment Adjustments of Australian Manufacturing Establishments," DEGIT Conference Papers c012_026, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  14. Bell, David N F, 1981. "Regional Output: Employment and Unemployment Fluctuations," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(1), pages 42-60, March.
  15. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  16. Ghysels, Eric & Perron, Pierre, 1993. "The effect of seasonal adjustment filters on tests for a unit root," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 57-98.
  17. George A. Akerlof, 2009. "How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why It Matters," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1175-1175.
  18. Lai Yew Wah, 1997. "Employment effects of output and technological progress in Malaysian manufacturing," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 411-420.
  19. Prachowny, Martin F J, 1993. "Okun's Law: Theoretical Foundations and Revised Estimates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(2), pages 331-36, May.
  20. Hart, R A & Sharot, T, 1978. "The Short-run Demand for Workers and Hours: A Recursive Model," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 299-309, June.
  21. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
  22. Kaufman, Roger T., 1988. "An international comparison of Okun's laws," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 182-203, June.
  23. Shigeyuki Hamori & Akira Tokihisa, 2001. "Seasonal cointegration and the money demand function: some evidence from Japan," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(5), pages 305-310.
  24. Madden, G M & Tuckwell, R H, 1975. "The Output-Employment Relationship in Australian Industry," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 51(135), pages 321-27, September.
  25. Bhalotra, Sonia R, 1998. "The Puzzle of Jobless Growth in Indian Manufacturing," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 60(1), pages 5-32, February.
  26. Morrison, C. J. & Berndt, E. R., 1981. "Short-run labor productivity in a dynamic model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 339-365, August.
  27. Moosa, Imad A., 1997. "A Cross-Country Comparison of Okun's Coefficient," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 335-356, June.
  28. Attfield, Clifford L. F. & Silverstone, Brian, 1998. "Okun's Law, Cointegration and Gap Variables," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 625-637, July.
  29. Verme, Paolo, 2006. "Constraints to growth and job creation in low-income Commonwealth of Independent States countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3893, The World Bank.
  30. Khemraj, Tarron & Madrick, Jeff & Semmler, Willi, 2006. "Okun's Law and Jobless Growth," MPRA Paper 54881, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  31. Martin Neil Baily & Robert Z. Lawrence, 2004. "What Happened to the Great U.S. Job Machine? The Role of Trade and Electronic Offshoring," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(2), pages 211-284.
  32. Ireland, N J & Smyth, David J, 1970. "The Specification of Short-run Employment Models," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 281-85, April.
  33. Badi H. Baltagi & Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Timur Hulagu, 2012. "How Different Are the Wage Curves for Formal and Informal Workers? Evidence from Turkey," Center for Policy Research Working Papers, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University 145, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
  34. Robert Dixon & David Shepherd, 2006. "The Cyclical Dynamics and Volatility of Australian Output and Employment," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series, The University of Melbourne 968, The University of Melbourne.
  35. Jaakko Pehkonen, 2000. "Employment, unemployment and output growth in booms and recessions: time series evidence from Finland, 1970-1996," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(7), pages 885-900.
  36. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173, October.
  37. Berument, Hakan & Dogan, Nukhet & Tansel, Aysit, 2005. "Economic Performance and Unemployment: Evidence from an Emerging Economy - Turkey," IZA Discussion Papers 1614, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  38. Erica L. Groshen & Simon Potter, 2003. "Has structural change contributed to a jobless recovery?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 9(Aug).
  39. Michael Chletsos & Christos Kollias, 1997. "The Effects of Macroeconomic Aggregates on Employment Levels in Greece: A Causal Analysis," LABOUR, CEIS, CEIS, vol. 11(3), pages 437-448, November.
  40. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1989. "A Traditional Interpretation of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1146-64, December.
  41. Barbara Sawtelle, 2007. "Analyzing the Link Between Real GDP and Employment: An Industry Sector Approach," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(4), pages 46-54, October.
  42. Hamada, Koichi & Kurosaka, Yoshio, 1984. "The relationship between production and unemployment in Japan : Okun's law in comparative perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 71-94, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:46875. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.