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Economic Performance and Unemployment: Evidence from an Emerging Economy - Turkey

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Author Info

  • Berument, Hakan

    ()
    (Bilkent University)

  • Dogan, Nukhet

    ()
    (Gazi University)

  • Tansel, Aysit

    ()
    (Middle East Technical University)

Abstract

This article examines whether various macroeconomic policy shocks have different effects on overall unemployment rate and the unemployment rate by different levels of education in Turkey. These effects are assessed for total, male and female unemployment rates separately. To examine the relationship, a quarterly VAR model with a recursive order is employed to estimate the effects of real GDP, price, exchange rate, interbank interest rate, money supply and unemployment for the period from 1988:01 to 2003:04. Main findings indicate that a positive income shock reduces total unemployment while positive exchange rate and interbank interest rate innovations both increase the unemployment rate during the initial periods. The responses of high school educated unemployment rate to five macroeconomic variable shocks are different than the response of other educational unemployment rates. Furthermore, the overall results across gender are similar.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 1614.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: May 2005
Date of revision:
Publication status: published in: International Journal of Manpower, 2006, 27(7), 604-623
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp1614

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Keywords: unemployment; economic performance and vector autoregressive regression;

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References

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  1. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Aizenman, Joshua, 1999. "Macroeconomic adjustment with segmented labor markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 277-296, April.
  2. Yann Algan, 2000. "How well does the Aggregate Demand - Aggregate Supply framework explain unemployment fluctuations? A France - United States Comparison," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/8886, Sciences Po.
  3. Daitoh, Ichiroh, 2003. "Financial liberalization, urban unemployment and welfare: some implications of the artificial low interest rate and the high wage rate policies in LDCs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 163-179, October.
  4. Hakan Berument, 2005. "Measuring Monetary Policy for A Small Open Economy : Turkey," Departmental Working Papers 0509, Bilkent University, Department of Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. Sahin, Afsin & Tansel, Aysit & Berument, Hakan, 2013. "Output-Employment Relationship across Sectors: A Long- versus Short-Run Perspective," IZA Discussion Papers 7599, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Taylan Taner Dogan, 2012. "Macroeconomic Variables and Unemployment: The Case of Turkey," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(1), pages 71-78.
  3. Ceyhun ELGİN & Tolga Umut KUZUBAŞ, 2012. "Wage-Productivity Gap in Turkish Manufacturing Sector," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 27(316), pages 09-31.
  4. Hakan Berument & Nukhet Dogan & Aysit Tansel, 2008. "Macroeconomic Policy and Unemployment by Economic Activity: Evidence from Turkey," Working Papers 2008/7, Turkish Economic Association.
  5. Cioca Ionela Cornelia, 2013. "Analysis Of Correlation Between The Unemployment Rate And Gross Domestic Product In The European Union," Polish Journal of Management Studies, Czestochowa Technical University, Department of Management, vol. 7(1), pages 71-78, June.

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