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Analyzing the Link Between Real GDP and Employment: An Industry Sector Approach

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  • Barbara Sawtelle

Abstract

This paper offers insight into the “jobless recovery” phenomenon recently experienced in the U.S. economy by examining industry-sector employment responsiveness to the long-term real GDP expansion occurring during 1991-2001. Two employment models are specified—one using real GDP as the only explanatory variable and the other using real GDP, five additional macroeconomic performance variables, and a time trend as explanatory variables. Monthly data for April 1991–March 2001, and OLSQ regressions are used to derive industry-sector elasticities of employment with respect to real GDP. Empirical results highlight the importance of controlling for non-real GDP macro variables when determining relationships between employment and real GDP. The results identify five industries exhibiting “jobless recovery” characteristics (having negative employment elasticities) and a broad range of employment elasticities across industry categories. The findings may be helpful to business economists modeling their own industry employment and suggest that even during extended periods of real GDP expansion, there may be a case for using industry-specific labor market transition initiatives to assist employment growth.Business Economics (2007) 42, 46–54; doi:10.2145/20070405

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  • Barbara Sawtelle, 2007. "Analyzing the Link Between Real GDP and Employment: An Industry Sector Approach," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 42(4), pages 46-54, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:buseco:v:42:y:2007:i:4:p:46-54
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Paul-Francois Muzindutsi, 2014. "Manufacturing Production and Non-Agricultural Employment rate in South Africa: Time Series Analysis," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 6(10), pages 779-786.
    2. Afşin Şahin & Aysit Tansel & M. Hakan Berument, 2015. "Output–Employment Relationship Across Sectors: A Long- Versus Short-Run Perspective," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(3), pages 265-288, July.
    3. Nur Feriyanto, 2014. "Determinant of gross regional domestic product (GRDP) in Yogyakarta special province," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 6(2), pages 131-140, April.
    4. Maruf Rahman Maxim, 2020. "Environmental fiscal reform and the possibility of triple dividend in European and non-European countries: evidence from a meta-regression analysis," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 22(4), pages 633-656, October.
    5. Temitope L A, 2013. "Does Economic Growth Lead Employment in South Africa?," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 5(6), pages 336-345.
    6. EL HAMADI Youssef & ABDOUNI Abdeljabbar & BOUAOUZ Karima, 2017. "The Sectoral Employment Intensity Of Growth In Morocco: A Pooled Mean Group Approach," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 17(2), pages 87-98.
    7. Afşin Şahin & Aysit Tansel & M. Hakan Berument, 2015. "Output–Employment Relationship Across Sectors: A Long- Versus Short-Run Perspective," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(3), pages 265-288, July.
    8. Mindaugas Butkus & Laura Dargenyte-Kacilevièiene & Kristina Matuzevièiute & Janina Šeputiene & Dovile Rupliene, 2023. "Age- and Gender-specific Output-employment Relationship across Economic Sectors," Journal of Economics / Ekonomicky casopis, Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, vol. 71(1), pages 3-22, January.

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