IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/33229.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The maximum incremental social tolerable irreversible costs (MISTICs) and other benefits and costs of introducing transgenic maize in the EU-15

Author

Listed:
  • Wesseler, Justus
  • Scatasta, Sara
  • Nillesen, Eleonora

Abstract

The decision to release a new transgenic crop variety for planting in the European Union (EU) is a decision under irreversibility and uncertainty. We use a real option model to assess the ex-ante incremental benefits and costs of the decision to release Bt maize and HT maize in the EU-15 member states. The analysis uses Eurostat data for modelling the benefits and costs of non-transgenic maize using partial equilibrium models. The farm-level benefits and costs of Bt maize and HT maize are derived from field trials conducted within the EU-funded ECOGEN project in combination with secondary data sources. Adoption curves, hurdle rates and Maximum Incremental Social Tolerable Irreversible Costs (MISTICs) are calculated at country level for selected EU-15 member states. In general, the results show that the MISTICs on a per capita level are very small confirming previous results calculated in values for the year 1995. The MISTICs per farm are much larger. This indicates a problem for decision makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Wesseler, Justus & Scatasta, Sara & Nillesen, Eleonora, 2007. "The maximum incremental social tolerable irreversible costs (MISTICs) and other benefits and costs of introducing transgenic maize in the EU-15," MPRA Paper 33229, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:33229
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/33229/1/MPRA_paper_33229.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giancarlo Moschini & Harvey Lapan & Andrei Sobolevsky, 2000. "Roundup ready® soybeans and welfare effects in the soybean complex," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 33-55.
    2. Kalaitzandonakes, Nicholas G., 1999. "A Farm Level Perspective On Agrobiotechnology," Agricultural Outlook Forum 1999 32913, United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Outlook Forum.
    3. Moschini, GianCarlo & Lapan, Harvey E. & Sobolevsky, Andrei, 2000. "Trading Technology As Well As Final Products: Roundup Ready Soybeans And Welfare Effects In The Soybean Complex," Transitions in Agbiotech: Economics of Strategy and Policy, June 24-25, 1999, Washington, D.C. 26002, Regional Research Project NE-165 Private Strategies, Public Policies, and Food System Performance.
    4. Fernandez-Cornejo, Jorge & Klotz-Ingram, Cassandra & Jans, Sharon, 2000. "Farm-Level Effects Of Adopting Genetically Engineered Crops In The U.S.A," Transitions in Agbiotech: Economics of Strategy and Policy, June 24-25, 1999, Washington, D.C. 26018, Regional Research Project NE-165 Private Strategies, Public Policies, and Food System Performance.
    5. Eric Tollens, 2004. "Biodiversity versus transgenic sugar beet: the one euro question," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 31(1), pages 1-18, March.
    6. Pretty, J. N. & Brett, C. & Gee, D. & Hine, R. E. & Mason, C. F. & Morison, J. I. L. & Raven, H. & Rayment, M. D. & van der Bijl, G., 2000. "An assessment of the total external costs of UK agriculture," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 113-136, August.
    7. Conrad, Jon M., 2000. "Wilderness: options to preserve, extract, or develop," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 205-219, July.
    8. Bryant, Amy & Richards, Timothy J., 1998. "Hysteresis And The Shortage Of Agricultural Labor," 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT 20858, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    9. Pray, Carl & Ma, Danmeng & Huang, Jikun & Qiao, Fangbin, 2001. "Impact of Bt Cotton in China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 813-825, May.
    10. Robert Weaver & Justus Wessler, 2004. "Monopolistic pricing power for transgenic crops when technology adopters face irreversible benefits and costs," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(15), pages 969-973.
    11. Alex Winter-Nelson & Koffi Amegbeto, 1998. "Option Values to Conservation and Agricultural Price Policy: Application to Terrace Construction in Kenya," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(2), pages 409-418.
    12. Jim Leitzel & Erik Weisman, 1999. "Investing in Policy Reform," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 155(4), pages 696-696, December.
    13. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    14. Scatasta, Sara & Wesseler, Justus & Demont, Matty, 2005. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty and the Adoption of Transgenic Crops: the Case of BT-Maize in France," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24758, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Frisvold, George B. & Sullivan, John & Raneses, Anton, 2003. "Genetic improvements in major US crops: the size and distribution of benefits," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 109-119, March.
    16. Timothy J. Richards & Paul M. Patterson, 1998. "Hysteresis and the Shortage of Agricultural Labor," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(4), pages 683-695.
    17. Richards, Timothy J. & Green, Gareth P., 2003. "Economic Hysteresis in Variety Selection," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(1), pages 1-14, April.
    18. Richards, Timothy J. & Green, Gareth P., 2003. "Economic Hysteresis in Variety Selection," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 35(1), pages 1-14, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kikulwe, Enoch M. & Birol, Ekin & Wesseler, Justus & Falck-Zepeda, Jose Benjamin, 2013. "Benefits, costs, and consumer perceptions of the potential introduction of a fungus-resistant banana in Uganda and policy implications," IFPRI book chapters, in: Falck-Zepeda, Jose Benjamin & Gruère, Guillaume P. & Sithole-Niang, Idah (ed.), Genetically modified crops in Africa: Economic and policy lessons from countries south of the Sahara, chapter 4, pages 99-141, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Claudia Parisi & Tévécia Ronzon, 2016. "A global view of bio-based industries: benchmarking and monitoring their economic importance and future developments," JRC Research Reports JRC103038, Joint Research Centre.
    3. Groeneveld, Rolf A. & Wesseler, Justus & Berentsen, Paul B.M., 2013. "Dominos in the dairy: An analysis of transgenic maize in Dutch dairy farming," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 107-116.
    4. Dillen, Koen & Tollens, Eric & Wesseler, Justus, 2010. "The Barroso Proposal Of Nationalizing Gmapproval: A Look At Ht Sugar Beets Under Changed European Sugar Policy," 14th ICABR Conference, June 16-18, 2010, Ravello, Italy 188086, International Consortium on Applied Bioeconomy Research (ICABR).
    5. Skevas, Theodoros & Fevereiro, Pedro & Wesseler, Justus, 2010. "Coexistence regulations and agriculture production: A case study of five Bt maize producers in Portugal," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(12), pages 2402-2408, October.
    6. Beckmann, Volker & Soregaroli, Claudio & Wesseler, Justus, 2010. "Ex-ante regulation and ex-post liability under uncertainty and irreversibility: governing the coexistence of GM crops," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 4, pages 1-33.
    7. Jonas Kathage & Manuel Gómez-Barbero & Emilio Rodríguez-Cerezo, 2016. "Framework for assessing the socio-economic impacts of Bt maize cultivation," JRC Research Reports JRC103197, Joint Research Centre.
    8. Falck-Zepeda, José & Kilkuwe, Enoch & Wesseler, Justus, 2008. "Introducing a genetically modified banana in Uganda: Social benefits, costs, and consumer perceptions," IFPRI discussion papers 767, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    9. Smyth, Stuart J. & Gusta, Michael & Belcher, Kenneth & Phillips, Peter W.B. & Castle, David, 2011. "Environmental impacts from herbicide tolerant canola production in Western Canada," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 104(5), pages 403-410, June.
    10. Tillie, Pascal & Dillen, Koen & Rodríguez-Cerezo, Emilio, 2014. "Modelling ex-ante the economic and environmental impacts of Genetically Modified Herbicide Tolerant maize cultivation in Europe," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 150-160.
    11. Skevas, Theodoros & Fevereiro, P. & Wesseler, Justus, 2008. "Coping with ex ante Regulations and ex post Liability Rules for Planting Bt-maize – The Portuguese Experience," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44189, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Matty Demont & Marie Cerovska & Wim Daems & Koen Dillen & József Fogarasi & Erik Mathijs & František Muška & Josef Soukup & Eric Tollens, 2008. "Ex Ante Impact Assessment under Imperfect Information: Biotechnology in New Member States of the EU," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(3), pages 463-486, September.
    13. Demont, Matty & Dillen, Koen & Daems, Wim & Sausse, Christophe & Tollens, Eric & Mathijs, Erik, 2009. "On the proportionality of EU spatial ex ante coexistence regulations," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 508-518, December.
    14. Maximilian Kardung & Kutay Cingiz & Ortwin Costenoble & Roel Delahaye & Wim Heijman & Marko Lovrić & Myrna van Leeuwen & Robert M’Barek & Hans van Meijl & Stephan Piotrowski & Tévécia Ronzon & Johanne, 2021. "Development of the Circular Bioeconomy: Drivers and Indicators," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-24, January.
    15. Xianlei Ma & Justus Wesseler & Nico Heerink & Futian Qu, 2013. "Land Tenure Reforms and Land Conservation Investments in China ¨C What Does Real Option Value Theory Tell Us?," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 3, pages 19-33, August.
    16. Kovacevic, Vujadin & Wesseler, Justus, 2010. "Cost-effectiveness analysis of algae energy production in the EU," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 5749-5757, October.
    17. Wesseler, Justus, 2014. "Biotechnologies and agrifood strategies: opportunities, threats and economic implications," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 3(3), pages 1-18, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ihli, Hanna Julia & Gassner, Anja & Musshoff, Oliver, 2018. "Experimental insights on the investment behavior of small-scale coffee farmers in central Uganda under risk and uncertainty," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 31-44.
    2. Odening, Martin & Musshoff, Oliver, 2001. "Reale Optionen und Landwirtschaftliche Betriebslehre – oder: Kann man mit der Optionspreistheorie arbitrieren?," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 50(08), pages 1-10.
    3. Feil, Jan-Henning & Musshoff, Oliver, 2013. "Investment, disinvestment and policy impact analysis in the dairy sector: a real options approach," Structural Change in Agriculture/Strukturwandel im Agrarsektor (SiAg) Working Papers 159229, Humboldt University Berlin, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    4. Tauer, Loren W., 2006. "When to Get In and Out of Dairy Farming: A Real Option Analysis," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(2), pages 339-347, October.
    5. Beckmann, Volker & Soregaroli, Claudio & Wesseler, Justus, 2006. "Governing the Co-existence of GM Crops: Ex-Ante Regulation and Ex-Post Liability under Uncertainty and Irreversibility," Institutional Change in Agriculture and Natural Resources Discussion Papers 18845, Humboldt University Berlin, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    6. Dillen, Koen & Demont, Matty & Tollens, Eric, 2008. "Modelling heterogeneity to estimate the ex ante value of biotechnology innovations," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 43945, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Turvey, Calum G., 2002. "Can Hysteresis And Real Options Explain The Farmland Valuation Puzzle?," Working Papers 34131, University of Guelph, Department of Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    8. Lima, Dmitry & Colson, Gregory & Karali, Berna & Guerrero, Bridget & Amosson, Stephen H. & Wetzstein, Michael, 2013. "A New Look at the Economic Evaluation of Wind Energy as an Alternative to Electric and Natural Gas-Powered Irrigation," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1-12, November.
    9. Beckmann, Volker & Soregaroli, Claudio & Wesseler, Justus, 2010. "Ex-ante regulation and ex-post liability under uncertainty and irreversibility: governing the coexistence of GM crops," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 4, pages 1-33.
    10. Ihli, Hanna J. & Maart-Noelck, Syster C. & Musshoff, Oliver, 2014. "Does timing matter? A real options experiment to farmers’ investment and disinvestment behaviours," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(3), July.
    11. Ihli, Hanna Julia & Maart, Syster Christin & Musshoff, Oliver, 2012. "Investment and Disinvestment in Irrigation Technology – An Experimental Analysis of Farmers’ Decision Behavior –," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124532, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. W. H. Furtan & R. S. Gray & J. J. Holzman, 2003. "The Optimal Time to License a Biotech “Lemon”," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 21(4), pages 433-444, October.
    13. Ihli, Hanna Julia & Musshoff, Oliver, 2013. "Understanding the Investment Behavior of Ugandan Smallholder Farmers: An Experimental Analysis," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150331, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    14. Ihli, Hanna Julia & Musshoff, Oliver, 2013. "Investment Behavior of Ugandan Smallholder Farmers: An Experimental Analysis," GlobalFood Discussion Papers 154775, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, GlobalFood, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development.
    15. Feil, Jan-Henning & Musshoff, Oliver, 2012. "Policy Impact Analysis on Investments and Disinvestments under Competition: A Real Options Approach," 2012 Conference (56th), February 7-10, 2012, Fremantle, Australia 124294, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    16. Gesa Sophie Holst & Alexander März & Oliver Mußhoff, 2016. "Experimentelle Untersuchung der Optimalität von Investitionsentscheidungen [Do personal and experiment-specific characteristics influence the optimality of investment decisions?]," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 167-192, July.
    17. Eric Tollens, 2004. "Biodiversity versus transgenic sugar beet: the one euro question," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 31(1), pages 1-18, March.
    18. Quoc V. Luong & Loren W. Tauer, 2006. "A real options analysis of coffee planting in Vietnam," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 35(1), pages 49-57, July.
    19. Falck-Zepeda, Jose & Horna, Daniela & Smale, Melinda, 2007. "The economic impact and the distribution of benefits and risk from the adoption of insect resistant (Bt) cotton in West Africa," IFPRI discussion papers 718, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    20. Carol Alexander & Xi Chen, 2021. "Model risk in real option valuation," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 1025-1056, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    agriculture policy; biotechnology; GMOs; MISTICs; technical change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:33229. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.