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Can Hysteresis And Real Options Explain The Farmland Valuation Puzzle?

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Author Info
Turvey, Calum
Abstract

This paper proposes that the common finding that land prices are systematically higher than their fundamental value as measured by the present value of future cash might be due to real options arising from uncertainty in cash flows. The paper posits a model in which the seller has a real option to postpone the sale of land. Because the value of land is measured as a present value, the buyer does not hold a similar option to postpone the purchase. It is argued that the seller's option offers a plausible explanation for the wedge between observed farmland prices and the present value model. The paper uses a Dixit and Pindyck (1996) real options framework. Using historical cash flow and land price information for Ontario, it is shown how real options can lead to a land price greater than that predicted by the present value model. The findings also suggest the existence of land price bubbles and shows how a real options framework can be used to detect bubbles.

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Paper provided by University of Guelph, Department of Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics in its series Working Papers with number 34131.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:ags:uguewp:34131

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Web page: http://fare.uoguelph.ca/
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Keywords: Land Economics/Use;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1897, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicolás S., 1945-, 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Working papers 1523-84., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
  3. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading, and Overreaction in Asset Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2143-2184, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Stewart C. Myers & Nicholas S. Majluf, 1984. "Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have InformationThat Investors Do Not Have," NBER Working Papers 1396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicholas S., 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 187-221, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Maurice J. Roche, 2001. "Fads versus fundamentals in farmland prices: comment," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1070301, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth. [Downloadable!]
  7. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-38, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Jeffrey R. Stokes & William I. Nayda, 2003. "The Pricing of Revenue Assurance: Reply," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, American Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 85(4), pages 1066-1069, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Turvey, Calum G. & Baker, Timothy G. & Weersink, Alfons, 1992. "Farm Operating Risk And Cash Rent Determination," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(01), July. [Downloadable!]
  10. Capozza Dennis R. & Sick Gordon A., 1994. "The Risk Structure of Land Markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 297-319, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-48, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Robert C. Merton, 1973. "Theory of Rational Option Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(1), pages 141-183, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Bailey, Warren, 1991. "Valuing agricultural firms : An examination of the contingent-claims approach to pricing real assets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 771-791, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Capozza, Dennis R. & Helsley, Robert W., 1990. "The stochastic city," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 187-203, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Andrew B. Abel & Avinash K. Dixit & Janice C. Eberly & Robert S. Pindyck, 1996. "Options, the Value of Capital, and Investment," NBER Working Papers 5227, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Leland, Hayne E & Pyle, David H, 1977. "Informational Asymmetries, Financial Structure, and Financial Intermediation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 371-87, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Lenos Trigeorgis, 1993. "Real Options and Interactions With Financial Flexibility," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 22(3), Fall.
  18. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Falk, Barry L., 2003. "Formally Testing the Present Value Model of Farmland Prices," Staff General Research Papers 11093, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  20. Jonathan B. Berk & Richard C. Green & Vasant Naik, 1999. "Optimal Investment, Growth Options, and Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1553-1607, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. John Heaton & Deborah Lucas, 2000. "Stock prices and fundamentals," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Apr. [Downloadable!]
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  22. Hansen, Robert G, 1987. "A Theory for the Choice of Exchange Medium in Mergers and Acquisitions," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(1), pages 75-95, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Falk, Barry & Lee, Bong-Soo & Susmel, Rauli, 2001. " Fads versus Fundamentals in Farmland Prices: Reply," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, American Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 83(4), pages 1078-81, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Bryant, Amy & Richards, Timothy J., 1998. "Hysteresis And The Shortage Of Agricultural Labor," 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT 20858, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
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  1. Odening, Martin & Musshoff, Oliver & Huettel, Silke, 2003. "Empirische Validierung von Realoptionsmodellen," Working Paper Series 18825, Humboldt University Berlin, Institute for Agricultural Economic and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jason Winfree & Jill McCluskey & Ron Mittelhammer, 2006. "Buyer-Type Effects in Conservation and Preservation Property Values," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 167-179, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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