Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Can Hysteresis And Real Options Explain The Farmland Valuation Puzzle?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Turvey, Calum G.
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    This paper proposes that the common finding that land prices are systematically higher than their fundamental value as measured by the present value of future cash might be due to real options arising from uncertainty in cash flows. The paper posits a model in which the seller has a real option to postpone the sale of land. Because the value of land is measured as a present value, the buyer does not hold a similar option to postpone the purchase. It is argued that the seller's option offers a plausible explanation for the wedge between observed farmland prices and the present value model. The paper uses a Dixit and Pindyck (1996) real options framework. Using historical cash flow and land price information for Ontario, it is shown how real options can lead to a land price greater than that predicted by the present value model. The findings also suggest the existence of land price bubbles and shows how a real options framework can be used to detect bubbles.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34131
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University of Guelph, Department of Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics in its series Working Papers with number 34131.

    as in new window
    Length:
    Date of creation: 2002
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ags:uguewp:34131

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://fare.uoguelph.ca/
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: Land Economics/Use;

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. John Heaton & Deborah Lucas, 2000. "Stock prices and fundamentals," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Apr.
    2. Lenos Trigeorgis, 1993. "Real Options and Interactions With Financial Flexibility," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 22(3), Fall.
    3. Bailey, Warren, 1991. "Valuing agricultural firms : An examination of the contingent-claims approach to pricing real assets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 771-791, October.
    4. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicolás S., 1945-, 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Working papers 1523-84., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    5. Campbell, John, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Scholarly Articles 3294737, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    6. Barry Falk & Bong-Soo Lee, 1998. "Fads versus Fundamentals in Farmland Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(4), pages 696-707.
    7. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicholas S., 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 187-221, June.
    8. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
    9. Hayne E. Leland and David H. Pyle., 1976. "Informational Asymmetries, Financial Structure, and Financial Intermediation," Research Program in Finance Working Papers 41, University of California at Berkeley.
    10. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-48, September.
    11. Turvey, Calum G. & Baker, Timothy G. & Weersink, Alfons, 1992. "Farm Operating Risk And Cash Rent Determination," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(01), July.
    12. Andrew B. Abel & Avinash K. Dixit & Janice C. Eberly & Robert S. Pindyck, 1996. "Options, the Value of Capital, and Investment," NBER Working Papers 5227, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Jonathan Berk & Richard C. Green & Vasant Naik, . "Optimal Investment, Growth Options and Security Returns," GSIA Working Papers 64, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
    14. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading, and Overreaction in Asset Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2143-2184, December.
    15. Stewart C. Myers & Nicholas S. Majluf, 1984. "Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have InformationThat Investors Do Not Have," NBER Working Papers 1396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Maurice J. Roche, 2001. "Fads versus fundamentals in farmland prices: comment," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1070301, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    17. Falk, Barry L., 1991. "Formally Testing the Present Value Model of Farmland Prices," Staff General Research Papers 11093, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    18. Dixit, A., 1988. "Entry And Exit Decisions Under Uncertainty," Papers 91, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
    19. Bryant, Amy & Richards, Timothy J., 1998. "Hysteresis And The Shortage Of Agricultural Labor," 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT 20858, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    20. Capozza, Dennis R. & Helsley, Robert W., 1990. "The stochastic city," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 187-203, September.
    21. Capozza Dennis R. & Sick Gordon A., 1994. "The Risk Structure of Land Markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 297-319, May.
    22. Jeffrey R. Stokes & William I. Nayda & Burton C. English, 1997. "The Pricing of Revenue Assurance," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(2), pages 439-451.
    23. Barry Falk & Bong-Soo Lee & Rauli Susmel, 2001. "Fads versus Fundamentals in Farmland Prices: Reply," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(4), pages 1078-1081.
    24. Hansen, Robert G, 1987. "A Theory for the Choice of Exchange Medium in Mergers and Acquisitions," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(1), pages 75-95, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. David Sparling & Calum G. Turvey, 2003. "Further thoughts on the relationship between economic value added and stock market performance," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 255-267.
    2. Maart, Syster Christin & Musshoff, Oliver & Odening, Martin & Schade, Christian, 2011. "Closing down the Farm: An Experimental Analysis of Disinvestment Timing," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114375, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Jason Winfree & Jill McCluskey & Ron Mittelhammer, 2006. "Buyer-Type Effects in Conservation and Preservation Property Values," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 167-179, September.
    4. Maart, Syster Christin & Musshoff, Oliver & Odening, Martin & Schade, Christian, 2010. "Zum Desinvestitionsverhalten Landwirtschaftlicher Unternehmer: Ergebnisse Einer Experimentellen Untersuchung," 50st Annual Conference, Braunschweig, Germany, September 29-October 1, 2010 93943, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    5. Winfree, Jason A. & McCluskey, Jill J. & Mittelhammer, Ronald C., 2002. "An Option Value Approach To Valuing Preservation Properties," 2002 Annual Meeting, July 28-31, 2002, Long Beach, California 36619, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    6. Odening, Martin & Musshoff, Oliver & Huettel, Silke, 2003. "Empirische Validierung von Realoptionsmodellen," Working Paper Series 18825, Humboldt University Berlin, Department Agricultural Economics.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:uguewp:34131. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.