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Irreversibility, Uncertainty and the Adoption of Transgenic Crops: the Case of BT-Maize in France

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  • Scatasta, Sara
  • Wesseler, Justus
  • Demont, Matty

Abstract

This study applies a real option approach to quantify, ex-ante, the maximum incremental social tolerable irreversible costs that would justify immediate adoption of Bt maize in France. Based on field trials, we find that incremental private reversible benefits in the agricultural sector are -18 million euro yearly for maize for animal feed and 1 million euro yearly for maize for human consumption. Incremental social irreversible benefits from reduced insecticide use are negligible. The maximum incremental social tolerable irreversible costs are -28 million euro yearly for maize for animal feed and 0.4 million Euro yearly for maize for human consumption.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark with number 24758.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae05:24758

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Related research

Keywords: Bt maize; real option; France; field trials; irreversible social costs; Crop Production/Industries; D6; D8; Q1;

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  1. Demont, Matty & Wesseler, Justus & Tollens, Eric, 2003. "Biodiversity versus Transgenic Sugar Beet: The One Euro Question," 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa, International Association of Agricultural Economists 25831, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  2. Giancarlo Moschini & Harvey Lapan, 1997. "Intellectual Property Rights and the Welfare Effects of Agricultural R&D," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(4), pages 1229-1242.
  3. Katranidis, Stelios D. & Velentzas, Kostas, 2000. "The Markets of Cotton Seed and Maize in Greece: Welfare Implications of the Common Agricultural Policy," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 1(2), August.
  4. Moschini, GianCarlo & Lapan, Harvey E. & Sobolevsky, Andrei, 2000. "Roundup Ready Soybeans and Welfare Effects in the Soybean Complex," Staff General Research Papers 1799, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. Beckmann, Volker & Soregaroli, Claudio & Wesseler, Justus, 2009. "Ex-ante regulation and ex-post liability under uncertainty and irreversibility: governing the coexistence of GM crops," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-53, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  2. Falck-Zepeda, José & Kilkuwe, Enoch & Wesseler, Justus, 2008. "Introducing a genetically modified banana in Uganda: Social benefits, costs, and consumer perceptions," IFPRI discussion papers 767, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  3. Beckmann, Volker & Soregaroli, Claudio & Wesseler, Justus, 2006. "Governing the Co-existence of GM Crops: Ex-Ante Regulation and Ex-Post Liability under Uncertainty and Irreversibility," Institutional Change in Agriculture and Natural Resources Discussion Papers, Humboldt University Berlin, Department of Agricultural Economics 18845, Humboldt University Berlin, Department of Agricultural Economics.
  4. Wesseler, Justus & Scatasta, Sara & Nillesen, Eleonora, 2007. "The maximum incremental social tolerable irreversible costs (MISTICs) and other benefits and costs of introducing transgenic maize in the EU-15," MPRA Paper 33229, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Nillesen, Eleonora & Scatasta, Sara & Wesseler, Justus, 2006. "Bt and Ht Corn versus Conventional Pesticide and Herbicide Use. Do Environmental Impacts Differ?," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia, International Association of Agricultural Economists 25504, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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