Growth and the pollution convergence hypothesis: A nonparametric approach
AbstractThe pollution-convergence hypothesis is formalized in a neoclassical growth model with optimal emissions reduction: pollution growth rates are positively correlated with output growth (scale effect) but negatively correlated with emission levels (defensive effect). This dynamic law is empirically tested for two major and regulated air pollutants - nitrogen oxides (NOX) and sulfur oxides (SOX) - with a panel of 25 European countries spanning over years 1980-2005. Traditional parametric models are rejected by the data. However, more flexible regression techniques - semiparametric additive specifications and fully nonparametric regressions with discrete and continuous factors - confirm the existence of the predicted positive and defensive effects. By analyzing the spatial distributions of per capita emissions, we also show that cross-country pollution gaps have decreased over the period for both pollutants and within the Eastern as well as the Western European areas. A Markov modeling approach predicts further cross-country absolute convergence, in particular for SOX. The latter results hold in the presence of spatial non-convergence in per capita income levels within both regions.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 17492.
Date of creation: 17 Sep 2009
Date of revision:
Air pollution; convergence; economic growth; mixed nonparametric regressions; distribution dynamics.;
Other versions of this item:
- Carlos Ordás Criado & Simone Valente & Thanasis Stengos, 2009. "Growth and the pollution convergence hypothesis: a nonparametric approach," CEPE Working paper series 09-66, CEPE Center for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zurich.
- C. Ordás Criado & S. Valente & T. Stengos, 2009. "Growth and the pollution convergence hypothesis: a nonparametric approach," Working Papers 0908, University of Guelph, Department of Economics.
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Longitudinal Data; Spatial Time Series
- Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-10-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2009-10-03 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-ENV-2009-10-03 (Environmental Economics)
- NEP-FDG-2009-10-03 (Financial Development & Growth)
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