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Convergence in per capita CO2 emissions: a robust distributional approach

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Abstract

This paper investigates the convergence hypothesis for per capita CO2 emissions with a panel of 166 world areas covering the period 1960-2002. The analysis is based on the evolution of the spatial distributions over time. Robust measures of dispersion, asymmetry, peakedness and two nonparametric distributional tests - shape equality and multimodality - are used to assess spatial time differences. A robust normal reference bandwidth is also applied to estimate Markov’s transition laws and its subsequent ergodic (long-run) distributions. Our results point toward non-stationary, flattening and rightskewed spatial distributions before the oil price shocks of the 1970s and more stable shapes between 1980 and 2000 at the world level and for many country groupings (similar income, geographic neighbors, institutional partners). In the latter period, group-specific convergence patterns emerge with the clearest single-peaked and compact density shapes being reached in the wealthy, well-integrated and European countries during the last years of the panel. No significant multimodality is formally detected in the world distribution over the whole period. The Markov analysis suggests more divergence and larger per capita emissions for the world before stabilization occurs. A variety of steady state distributions are identified in the country subsets.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CEPE Center for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zurich in its series CEPE Working paper series with number 10-70.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cee:wpcepe:10-70

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Keywords: carbon dioxide emissions; air pollution; convergence; distribution dynamics; stochastic kernels; robustness;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. de Melo, Jaime & Mathys, Nicole Andréa, 2012. "Reconciling Trade and Climate Policies," CEPR Discussion Papers 8760, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Carlos Ordás Criado & Simone Valente & Thanasis Stengos, 2009. "Growth and the pollution convergence hypothesis: a nonparametric approach," CEPE Working paper series 09-66, CEPE Center for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zurich.
  3. McKitrick, Ross & Wood, Joel, 2013. "Co-fluctuation patterns of per capita carbon dioxide emissions: The role of energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1-12.
  4. Burnett, J. Wesley, 2013. "Club Convergence and Clustering of U.S. Energy-Related CO2 Emissions," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149578, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  5. Mona Haddad & Ben Shepherd, 2011. "Managing Openness : Trade and Outward-oriented Growth After the Crisis," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2283, July.
  6. Mazzanti, M. & Musolesi, A., 2013. "Economic development and CO2 emissions: assessing the effect of policy and energy time events for advanced countries," Working Papers 2013-11, Grenoble Applied Economics Laboratory (GAEL).
  7. Teixidó Figueras, Jordi & Duro Moreno, Juan Antonio, 2012. "Ecological Footprint Inequality: A methodological review and some results," Working Papers 2072/203168, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
  8. Nicole A. MATHYS & Jaime de MELO, 2010. "Trade and Climate Change: The Challenges Ahead," Working Papers P14, FERDI.
  9. Massimiliano Mazzanti & Antonio Musolesi, 2012. "Breaking Environmental Kuznets Curves. Evaluating Energy and Policy Time Events Effects on CO2 Trends for Advanced Countries," Working Papers 201214, University of Ferrara, Department of Economics.

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