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Abstract

Traditional empirical strategies for studying convergence - more generally, the dynamics and determinants of economic growth, can be misleading if important, underlying permanent or growth components are stochastically time-varying. This paper documents the degree to which this instability characterises the data, and then offers an alternative empirical framework. This alternative, directly modelling the dynamics of the evolving cross-section distributions, applied to cross-country income data yields some interesting insights: economies across the world seem to be converging to a distribution where many remain wealthy, and many remain poor. Those economies able to make the transition from low to high income levels are primarily small and sparsely populated; middle-income ones, by contrast, are a vanishing class.

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File URL: http://www2.lse.ac.uk/fmg/workingPapers/discussionPapers/fmg_pdfs/dp154.pdf
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Paper provided by Financial Markets Group in its series FMG Discussion Papers with number dp154.

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Date of creation: Nov 1992
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Handle: RePEc:fmg:fmgdps:dp154

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Web page: http://www2.lse.ac.uk/fmg/

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• C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models

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1. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "Convergence across States and Regions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 107-182.
   
   • Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence Across States and Regions," Papers 629, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
2. Geweke, John & Marshall, Robert C & Zarkin, Gary A, 1986. "Mobility Indices in Continuous Time Markov Chains," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(6), pages 1407-23, November.
3. Burton Singer & Seymour Spilerman, 1976. "Some Methodological Issues in the Analysis of Longitudinal Surveys," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 4, pages 447-474 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
4. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-51, April.
   
   • Barro, Robert J. & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Scholarly Articles 3451299, Harvard University Department of Economics.
   • Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence," Papers 645, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
   • Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence Across States and Regions," Papers 629, Yale - Economic Growth Center.

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