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Divergence in State-Level Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions

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  • Aldy, Joseph

    ()
    (Resources for the Future)

Abstract

Decisionmakers considering policies to mitigate climate change will benefit from information about current and future distributions of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Examining the emissions dynamics of advanced economies that have experienced income convergence could provide insights about how distributions of country-level emissions may evolve over time if country-level incomes eventually undergo some convergence. This paper addresses the question of whether income convergence is sufficient for per capita CO2 emissions convergence by focusing on a set of advanced economies, the U.S. states. I undertake a variety of cross-sectional and stochastic convergence tests with two novel measures of 1960–1999 state-level CO2 emissions per capita—production (pre-electricity trade) CO2 and consumption (post-electricity trade) CO2—and with income per capita. Although incomes continue to converge, I find stark divergence in production CO2 per capita and no evidence of convergence for consumption CO2 per capita. Forecasts of future distributions show little convergence in emissions.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Resources For the Future in its series Discussion Papers with number dp-06-07.

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Date of creation: 09 Feb 2006
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Handle: RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-06-07

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Keywords: Markov chain transition matrix; sigma convergence; stochastic convergence; emissions distributions;

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  1. Brock,W.A. & Taylor,M.S., 2004. "The Green Solow model," Working papers 16, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  2. John A. List, 1999. "Have Air Pollutant Emissions Converged Among U.S. Regions? Evidence from Unit Root Tests," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 66(1), pages 144-155, July.
  3. Vernon Henderson, 1995. "Effects of Air Quality Regulation," NBER Working Papers 5118, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Mark Strazicich & John List, 2003. "Are CO 2 Emission Levels Converging Among Industrial Countries?," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 24(3), pages 263-271, March.
  5. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
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  8. Danny Quah, 1992. "Empirical Cross-Section Dynamics in Economic Growth," FMG Discussion Papers dp154, Financial Markets Group.
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  10. Carlino, Gerald A. & Mills, Leonard O., 1993. "Are U.S. regional incomes converging? : A time series analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 335-346, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Chang, Chun-Ping & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2008. "Are per capita carbon dioxide emissions converging among industrialized countries? New time series evidence with structural breaks," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(04), pages 497-515, August.
  2. Bimonte, Salvatore, 2009. "Growth and environmental quality: Testing the double convergence hypothesis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(8-9), pages 2406-2411, June.
  3. Massimiliano Mazzanti & Antonio Musolesi & Roberto Zoboli, 2006. "A Bayesian Approach to the Estimation of Environmental Kuznets Curves for CO2 Emissions," Working Papers 2006.121, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  4. Burnett, J. Wesley, 2013. "Club Convergence and Clustering of U.S. Energy-Related CO2 Emissions," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149578, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  5. Risa Kumazawa & Michael Callaghan, 2012. "The effect of the Kyoto Protocol on carbon dioxide emissions," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 201-210, January.
  6. Le Pen, Yannick & Sévi, Benoît, 2010. "On the non-convergence of energy intensities: Evidence from a pair-wise econometric approach," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/6801, Paris Dauphine University.
  7. Vaona, Andrea, 2013. "The sclerosis of regional electricity intensities in Italy: An aggregate and sectoral analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 880-889.
  8. Ordás Criado, C. & Grether, J.-M., 2011. "Convergence in per capita CO2 emissions: A robust distributional approach," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 637-665, September.
  9. Joseph E. Aldy & William A. Pizer, 2009. "Issues in Designing U.S. Climate Change Policy," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 179-210.
  10. Li, Xuehui & Lin, Boqiang, 2013. "Global convergence in per capita CO2 emissions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 357-363.
  11. Huang, Hui-Fen & Lo, Shang-Lien, 2011. "Review and classify the GHGs-related indicators," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 594-602, January.
  12. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2009. "Stochastic convergence of per capita carbon dioxide emissions and multiple structural breaks in OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1375-1381, November.
  13. Mariam Camarero & Juana Castillo-Giménez & Andrés Picazo-Tadeo & Cecilio Tamarit, 2014. "Is eco-efficiency in greenhouse gas emissions converging among European Union countries?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 143-168, August.
  14. Marrero, Gustavo A., 2010. "Greenhouse gases emissions, growth and the energy mix in Europe," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1356-1363, November.
  15. Mariam Camarero & Yurena Mendoza & Javier Ordóñez, 2011. "Re-examining CO2 emissions. Is the assessment of convergence meaningless?," Working Papers 2011/06, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).

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