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Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Convergence or Divergence?

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Author Info
Aldy, Joseph () (Resources for the Future)

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Abstract

Understanding and considering the distribution of per capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is important in designing international climate change proposals and incentives for participation. I evaluate historic international emissions distributions and forecast future distributions to assess whether per capita emissions have been converging or will converge. I find evidence of convergence among 23 member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), whereas emissions appear to be diverging for an 88-country global sample over 1960–2000. Forecasts based on a Markov chain transition matrix provide little evidence of future emissions convergence and indicate that emissions may diverge in the near term. I also review the shortcomings of environmental Kuznets curve regressions and structural models in characterizing future emissions distributions.

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Paper provided by Resources For the Future in its series Discussion Papers with number dp-05-53.

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Date of creation: 23 Nov 2005
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Handle: RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-05-53

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Related research
Keywords: emissions distributions; environmental Kuznets curve; Markov chain transition matrix;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters
Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounting

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  5. Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence," Papers 645, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
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  6. Aldy, Joseph, 2005. "Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Convergence or Divergence?," Discussion Papers dp-05-53, Resources For the Future. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Massimiliano Mazzanti & Antonio Musolesi & Roberto Zoboli, 2006. "A Bayesian Approach to the Estimation of Environmental Kuznets Curves for CO2 Emissions," Working Papers 2006.121, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
  2. Joakim Westerlund & Syed Basher, 2008. "Testing for Convergence in Carbon Dioxide Emissions Using a Century of Panel Data," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 40(1), pages 109-120, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. repec:mop:credwp:08.12.79 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Marco Barassi & Matthew Cole & Robert Elliott, 2008. "Stochastic Divergence or Convergence of Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Re-examining the Evidence," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 40(1), pages 121-137, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Joseph Aldy, 2006. "Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Convergence or Divergence?," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 33(4), pages 533-555, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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