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Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Convergence or Divergence?

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  • Aldy, Joseph

    ()
    (Resources for the Future)

Abstract

Understanding and considering the distribution of per capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is important in designing international climate change proposals and incentives for participation. I evaluate historic international emissions distributions and forecast future distributions to assess whether per capita emissions have been converging or will converge. I find evidence of convergence among 23 member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), whereas emissions appear to be diverging for an 88-country global sample over 1960–2000. Forecasts based on a Markov chain transition matrix provide little evidence of future emissions convergence and indicate that emissions may diverge in the near term. I also review the shortcomings of environmental Kuznets curve regressions and structural models in characterizing future emissions distributions.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Resources For the Future in its series Discussion Papers with number dp-05-53.

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Date of creation: 23 Nov 2005
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Handle: RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-05-53

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Keywords: emissions distributions; environmental Kuznets curve; Markov chain transition matrix;

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  10. Aldy, Joseph, 2005. "Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Convergence or Divergence?," Discussion Papers dp-05-53, Resources For the Future.
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