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Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Convergence or Divergence?

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Author Info
Joseph Aldy ()

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Abstract

Understanding and considering the distribution of per capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is important in designing international climate change proposals and incentives for participation. I evaluate historic international emissions distributions and forecast future distributions to assess whether per capita emissions have been converging or will converge. I find evidence of convergence among 23 member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), whereas emissions appear to be diverging for an 88-country global sample over 1960–2000. Forecasts based on a Markov chain transition matrix provide little evidence of future emissions convergence and indicate that emissions may diverge in the near term. I also review the shortcomings of environmental Kuznets curve regressions and structural models in characterizing future emissions distributions. Copyright Springer 2006

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10640-005-6160-x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists in its journal Environmental & Resource Economics.

Volume (Year): 33 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 (04)
Pages: 533-555
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Handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:33:y:2006:i:4:p:533-555

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100263

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Related research
Keywords: emissions distributions; environmental Kuznets curve; Markov transition matrix; O40; Q54; Q56;

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  7. Lee, Kevin & Pesaran, M Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1997. "Growth and Convergence in Multi-country Empirical Stochastic Solow Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 357-92, July-Aug.. [Downloadable!]
  8. Aldy, Joseph, 2005. "Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Convergence or Divergence?," Discussion Papers dp-05-53, Resources For the Future. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Friedman, Milton, 1992. "Do Old Fallacies Ever Die?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(4), pages 2129-32, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Evans, Paul & Karras, Georgios, 1996. "Convergence revisited," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 249-265, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. repec:mop:credwp:08.12.79 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Marco Barassi & Matthew Cole & Robert Elliott, 2008. "Stochastic Divergence or Convergence of Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Re-examining the Evidence," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 40(1), pages 121-137, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Joseph Aldy, 2006. "Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Convergence or Divergence?," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 33(4), pages 533-555, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Massimiliano Mazzanti & Antonio Musolesi, 2009. "Carbon Kuznets Curves: Long-run Structural Dynamics and Policy Events," Working Papers 2009.87, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
  5. Massimiliano Mazzanti & Antonio Musolesi & Roberto Zoboli, 2006. "A Bayesian Approach to the Estimation of Environmental Kuznets Curves for CO2 Emissions," Working Papers 2006.121, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
  6. Joakim Westerlund & Syed Basher, 2008. "Testing for Convergence in Carbon Dioxide Emissions Using a Century of Panel Data," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 40(1), pages 109-120, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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