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Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth

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  • Danny Quah

Abstract

Traditional empirical strategies for studying convergence - more generally, the dynamics and determinants of economic growth, can be misleading if important, underlying permanent or growth components are stochastically time-varying. This paper documents the degree to which this instability characterises the data, and then offers an alternative empirical framework. This alternative, directly modelling the dynamics of the evolving cross-section distributions, applied to cross-country income data yields some interesting insights: economies across the world seem to be converging to a distribution where many remain wealthy, and many remain poor. Those economies able to make the transition from low to high income levels are primarily small and sparsely populated; middle-income ones, by contrast, are a vanishing class.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics with number 75.

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Date of creation: 1992
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmem:75

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Keywords: Economic development;

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  1. Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence Across States and Regions," Papers, Yale - Economic Growth Center 629, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
  2. Geweke, John & Marshall, Robert C & Zarkin, Gary A, 1986. "Mobility Indices in Continuous Time Markov Chains," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 54(6), pages 1407-23, November.
  3. Burton Singer & Seymour Spilerman, 1976. "Some Methodological Issues in the Analysis of Longitudinal Surveys," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 4, pages 447-474 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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