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Forecasting Irregularly Spaced UHF Financial Data: Realized Volatility vs UHF-GARCH Models

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Author Info
Francois-Éric Racicot () (Département des sciences administratives, Université du Québec (Outaouais) et LRSP)
Raymond Théoret () (Département de stratégie des affaires, Université du Québec (Montréal))
Alain Coen () (Département de stratégie des affaires, Université du Québec (Montréal))

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Abstract

A very promising literature has been recently devoted to the modeling of ultra-high-frequency (UHF) data. Our first aim is to develop an empirical application of Autoregressive Conditional Duration GARCH models and the realized volatility to forecast future volatilities on irregularly spaced data. We also compare the out sample performances of ACD GARCH models with the realized volatility method. We propose a procedure to take into account the time deformation and show how to use these models for computing daily VaR.

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File URL: http://www.repad.org/ca/qc/uq/uqo/dsa/RealizedVolatilityandUHF_repad_juillet_2006.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Département des sciences administratives, UQO in its series RePAd Working Paper Series with number UQO-DSA-wp152006.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 06 Jul 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pqs:wpaper:152006

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Related research
Keywords: Realized volatility; Ultra High Frequency GARCH; time deformation; financial markets; Daily VaR.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2002. "Estimating quadratic variation using realized variance," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 457-477. [Downloadable!]
  3. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1992. " Time and the Process of Security Price Adjustment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 576-605, June.
  4. Gourieroux, Christian & Jasiak, Joanna & Le Fol, Gaelle, 1999. "Intra-day market activity," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 193-226, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1998. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1127-1162, September.
  6. Tim Bollerslev & Jeffrey Wooldridge, 1992. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation and inference in dynamic models with time-varying covariances," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 143-172. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Shephard, 2002. "Econometric analysis of realized volatility and its use in estimating stochastic volatility models," Journal Of The Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(2), pages 253-280. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Donaldson, R. Glen & Kamstra, Mark, 1997. "An artificial neural network-GARCH model for international stock return volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 17-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Nour Meddahi, 2002. "A theoretical comparison between integrated and realized volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 479-508. [Downloadable!]
  10. Nour Meddahi, 2003. "ARMA representation of integrated and realized variances," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(2), pages 335-356, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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