Emerging markets do not handle adverse shocks well. In this paper, I will outline an explanation of why emerging markets are so fragile, and why they may adopt contractual mechanisms -- such as a dollarized banking system -- that increase their fragility. I draw on this analysis to explain why dollarized economies may be prone to dollar shortages and twin crises. The model of crises described here differs in some important aspects from what is now termed the first, second, and third generation models of crises. I then examine how domestic policies, especially monetary policy, can mitigate the adverse effects of these crises. Finally, I will ask if there is a constructive role for international financial institutions both in helping to prevent the crises and in helping resolve them.
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number
10845.
Length: Date of creation: Oct 2004 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10845
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Rajan, Raghuram G. & Tokatlidis, Ioannis, 2005.
"Dollar Shortages and Crises,"
MPRA Paper
832, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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Find related papers by JEL classification: G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
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Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003.
"Debt Intolerance,"
NBER Working Papers
9908, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003.
"Debt Intolerance,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2003-1), pages 1-74.
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Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000.
"Fear of Floating,"
NBER Working Papers
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Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2003.
"Money in a Theory of Banking,"
NBER Working Papers
10070, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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