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Exchange Rate Volatility and the Credit Channel in Emerging Markets: A Vertical Perspective

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Caballero, Ricardo
Krishnamurthy, Arvind

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Abstract

Firms in emerging markets are exposed to severe financial frictions and credit constraints that are exacerbated by the sudden stop of capital inflows. Can monetary policy offset this external credit squeeze? We show that although this may be the case during moderate contractions (or in partial equilibrium), the expansionary effect of monetary policy vanishes during severe external crises. The exchange rate jumps to reduce the dollar value of domestic collateral until equilibrium in domestic financial markets is consistent with the external constraint. An expansionary monetary policy in this context raises the value of domestic collateral, but it exacerbates the exchange rate depreciation (beyond the standard interest parity effect) and has little effect on aggregate activity. However, there is a dynamic linkage between monetary policy and sudden stops. The anticipation of a dogged defense of the exchange rate worsens the consequences of sudden stops by distorting the private sector incentive to take precautions against these shocks. For similar general equilibrium reasons, dollarization of liabilities has limited impact during a sudden stop, but it has significant underinsurance consequences.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 824.

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Date of creation: 25 Jan 2005
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:824

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G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
G0 - Financial Economics - - General

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  3. Rudi Dornbusch, 2001. "Fewer Monies, Better Monies," NBER Working Papers 8324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Gust, Christopher & Roldos, Jorge, 2004. "Monetary policy in a financial crisis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 64-103, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2003. "Money in a Theory of Banking," NBER Working Papers 10070, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Javier Gómez, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Sudden Stops," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002854, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
  10. Hoyt Bleakley & Kevin Cowan, 2002. "Corporate dollar debt and depreciations: much ado about nothing?," Working Papers 02-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Sebastian Edwards & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2003. "Flexible Exchange Rates as Shock Absorbers," NBER Working Papers 9867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Working Papers 95-15, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Krishnamurthy, Arvind, 2001. "International and domestic collateral constraints in a model of emerging market crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 513-548, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. repec:rus:hseeco:123927 is not listed on IDEAS
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  1. Francisco Gallego & Geraint Jones, 2005. "Exchange Rate Interventions and Insurance: Is “Fear of Floating” a Cause For Concern?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 326, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  2. Andres Velasco & Robert Chang, 2004. "Endogenous dollarization, expectations, and equilibrium monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun. [Downloadable!]
  3. Abbas Mirakhor & Iqbal Mehdi Zaidi, 2004. "Foreign Currency Deposits and International Liquidity Shortages in Pakistan," IMF Working Papers 04/167, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Andres Velasco & Roberto Chang, 2004. "Monetary Policy and the Currency Denomination of Debt: A Tale of Two Equilibria," NBER Working Papers 10827, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Fabio Braggion & Lawrence J. Christiano & Jorge Roldos, 2007. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a 'Sudden Stop'," NBER Working Papers 13254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Raghuram G. Rajan, 2005. "Has financial development made the world riskier?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 313-369. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2004. "Monetary policy and the currency denomination of debt: a tale of two equilibria," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 2004-30, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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