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On Keeping Your Powder Dry: Fiscal Foundations of Financial and Price Stability

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  • Maurice Obstfeld

    (University of California, Berkeley, CEPR, and NBER (E-mail: obstfeld@econ.berkeley.edu))

Abstract

Banking systems have rapidly grown to a point where for many countries bank assets amount to multiples of GDP. As a consequence, government fs capacity to provide stability-enhancing fiscal guarantees against systemic crises can no longer be taken for granted. As regulation of dynamic financial markets will inevitably be imperfect, prudent governments need to adjust other facets of macroeconomic policy in order to mitigate financial instability. A precautionary approach to fiscal policy, leading to moderate levels of public debt relative to GDP over the medium term, is essential for the credibility of government promises to support the financial system, as well as the broader economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Maurice Obstfeld, 2013. "On Keeping Your Powder Dry: Fiscal Foundations of Financial and Price Stability," IMES Discussion Paper Series 13-E-08, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    • Handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:13-e-08
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Òscar Jordá & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "Sovereigns Versus Banks: Credit, Crises, and Consequences," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 45-79.
    2. Peter Skott, 2016. "Aggregate demand, functional finance, and secular stagnation," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 13(2), pages 172-188, September.
    3. Mr. Julio Escolano & Vitor Gaspar, 2016. "Optimal Debt Policy Under Asymmetric Risk," IMF Working Papers 2016/178, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Claudio Borio & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2016. "Fiscal sustainability and the financial cycle," BIS Working Papers 552, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Ohnsorge, Franziska & Kose, M. Ayhan & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2020. "Benefits and Costs of Debt: The Dose Makes the Poison," CEPR Discussion Papers 14439, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2018. "Phillips Lecture – Why Some Times Are Different: Macroeconomic Policy and the Aftermath of Financial Crises," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 85(337), pages 1-40, January.
    7. Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Carmen Reinhart & Kenneth Rogoff, 2016. "Sovereign Debt and Financial Crises: Theory and Historical Evidence," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 1-6.
    8. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2019. "Fiscal Space and the Aftermath of Financial Crises: How It Matters and Why," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 239-331.
    9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Franziska L. Ohnsorge & Kenneth S. Rogoff & M. Ayhan Kose, 2022. "The Aftermath of Debt Surges," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 637-663, August.
    10. Bénétrix, Agustin S. & Lane, Philip R. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2015. "International currency exposures, valuation effects and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 98-109.
    11. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Reinhart, Vincent & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2015. "Dealing with debt," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 43-55.
    12. Stephanie Lo & Kenneth Rogoff, 2015. "Secular stagnation, debt overhang and other rationales for sluggish growth, six years on," BIS Working Papers 482, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Dąbrowski, Marek A. & Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika, 2015. "Monetary policy options for mitigating the impact of the global financial crisis on emerging market economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 409-431.
    14. Kose M. Ayhan & Ohnsorge Franziska & Sugawara Naotaka, 2022. "A Mountain of Debt: Navigating the Legacy of the Pandemic," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 233-268, December.
    15. Philip Lane, 2013. "International Capital Flows and Domestic Financial Conditions: Lessons for Emerging Asia," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp438, IIIS.
    16. Nicolas Caramp & Sanjay R Singh, 2023. "Bond Premium Cyclicality and Liquidity Traps," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(6), pages 2822-2879.
    17. Ma, Yong & Lv, Lin, 2023. "Financial development, financial instability, and fiscal policy volatility: International evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    18. Enrique Alberola-Ila & Ricardo Sousa, 2017. "Assessing fiscal policy through the lens of the financial and the commodity price cycles," BIS Working Papers 638, Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Bernardo Maggi, 2015. "(Why) Is the Euro system intrinsically unstable?," DSS Empirical Economics and Econometrics Working Papers Series 2015/1, Centre for Empirical Economics and Econometrics, Department of Statistics, "Sapienza" University of Rome.
    20. Ludovit Odor, 2014. "Another Quiet Revolution?," Discussion Papers Discussion Paper No. 5/20, Council for Budget Responsibility.
    21. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2017. "Why Some Times Are Different: Macroeconomic Policy and the Aftermath of Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 23931, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Claudio Borio & Marc Farag & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2023. "Tackling the fiscal policy-financial stability nexus," BIS Working Papers 1090, Bank for International Settlements.
    23. Hwang, Sundoo, 2022. "Effects of fiscal instability on financial instability," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 44(3), pages 49-74.
    24. Andrian, Leandro Gaston & Valencia, Oscar & Hirs, Jorge & Urrea Rios, Ivan Leonardo, 2022. "Fiscal Rules and Economic Cycles: Quality (Always) Matters," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12639, Inter-American Development Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; Financial stability; Monetary policy; Financial crisis; Banking crisis; Bank resolution;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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