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The Spillovers from Easy Liquidity and the Implications for Multilateralism

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  • Douglas W. Diamond

    (Chicago Booth and NBER)

  • Yunzhi Hu

    (University of North Carolina)

  • Raghuram G. Rajan

    (Chicago Booth and NBER)

Abstract

Exchange rate appreciation in capital-receiving countries, induced by easy monetary policy in funding countries, increases the expected net worth of firms in receiving countries and their ability to buy assets. Anticipating this higher liquidity for their assets, corporations in capital-receiving countries lever up, and neglect alternative sources of debt capacity such as maintaining the pledgeability of their cash flows. When monetary policy in source countries tightens, receiving country exchange rates depreciate, and liquidity dries up in their corporate sector even if country prospects are sound. Since pledgeability has been neglected, debt capacity plummets, leading to a sudden stop in funding and subsequent financial distress. Exchange rate intervention by recipient countries to slow appreciation (and depreciation) may improve outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Douglas W. Diamond & Yunzhi Hu & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2020. "The Spillovers from Easy Liquidity and the Implications for Multilateralism," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(1), pages 4-34, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfecr:v:68:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1057_s41308-019-00095-z
    DOI: 10.1057/s41308-019-00095-z
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    2. Linda S. Goldberg, 2022. "Global Liquidity: Drivers, Volatility and Toolkits," Speech 95155, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Loipersberger, Florian & Matschke, Johannes, 2022. "Financial cycles and domestic policy choices," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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