Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

The Future of the Euro : A Public Choice Perspective

Contents:

Author Info

  • Vaubel, Roland

Abstract

Public choice analysis can be helpful in predicting the course of European monetary integration and policy. The median (or decisive) voter theorem, the theory of the political business cycle and the economic theory of bureaucracy are all applicable. The purpose of this paper is to explain and predict the behaviour of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Council of Ministers on the basis of the available empirical evidence. Section 2 relies on the median voter theorem to derive predictions for the inflation rate of the euro. It shows that inflation rates have to be explained by the voters' sensitivity to inflation rather than the independence of central bankers and that the French members of the ECB Council hold the median position in terms of past inflation, voters' sensitivity to inflation and predicted or simulated preferred inflation. However, if the historical real exchange rate change is extrapolated and if failure to agree on an Executive Board is considered a possibility, the Belgian member of the ECB Council is the inflation median.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: https://ub-madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/1041/1/570.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institut fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik, Abteilung fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre in its series Discussion Papers with number 570.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mnh:vpaper:1041

Contact details of provider:
Postal: D-68131 Mannheim
Phone: +49-621-181-2773
Fax: +49-621-181-2772
Email:
Web page: http://www.vwl.uni-mannheim.de/institut/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Vaubel, Roland, 1978. "Real exchange-rate changes in the European community : A new approach to the determination of optimum currency areas," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 319-339, May.
  2. Adam Posen, 1995. "Central bank independence and disinflationary credibility: a missing link?," Staff Reports 1, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  3. Aksoy, Yunus & De Grauwe, Paul & Dewachter, Hans, 1999. "The European Central Bank: Decision Rules and Macroeconomic Performance," CEPR Discussion Papers 2067, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Hayo, Bernd, 1998. "Inflation culture, central bank independence and price stability," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 241-263, May.
  5. Oatley, Thomas, 1999. " Central Bank Independence and Inflation: Corporatism, Partisanship, and Alternative Indices of Central Bank Independence," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 98(3-4), pages 399-413, March.
  6. Marta Campillo & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1997. "Why Does Inflation Differ across Countries?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 335-362 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Romer, David, 1993. "Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 869-903, November.
  8. Masciandaro, Donato & Spinelli, Franco, 1994. "Central Banks' Independence: Institutional Determinants, Rankings and Central Bankers' Views," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 41(4), pages 434-43, November.
  9. Iversen, Torben, 1999. " The Political Economy of Inflation: Bargaining Structure or Central Bank Independence? Erratum," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 101(3-4), pages 285-306, December.
  10. Hans-Werner Sinn & Holger Feist, 1999. "Eurowinners and Eurolosers: The Distribution of Seigniorage Wealth in EMU," NBER Working Papers 6072, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-89, November.
  12. Vaubel, Roland, 1997. "Reply to Berger and Woitek," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 823-827, December.
  13. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Benoît Mojon, 1998. "EMU and Transatlantic Exchange Rate Stability," Working Papers 1998-02, CEPII research center.
  14. Iversen, Torben, 1999. " The Political Economy of Inflation: Bargaining Structure or Central Bank Independence?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 99(3-4), pages 237-58, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Maier, Philipp & Bezoen, Saskia, 2004. "Bashing and supporting central banks: the Bundesbank and the European Central Bank," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 923-939, November.
  2. Iika Korhonen & Mare Randveer, 2000. "Assessment of the Euro\'s implications for European economic development," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2000-2, Bank of Estonia, revised 11 Oct 2000.
  3. Sell, Friedrich L., 1999. "Die EWWU als Club: Positive und normative Implikationen für den Beitritt mittel- und osteuropäischer Reformstaaten ; Beitrag für den Projektbericht: Währungspolitische Optionen für die mittel- un," Working Papers in Economics 1999,4, Universität der Bundeswehr München, Economic Research Group.
  4. Christian Fahrholz & Philipp Mohl, 2004. "EMU-enlargement and the Reshaping of Decision-making within the ECB Governing Council: A Voting-Power Analysis," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp23, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 01 Jun 2004.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mnh:vpaper:1041. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Katharina Rautenberg).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.