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Die EWWU als Club: Positive und normative Implikationen für den Beitritt mittel- und osteuropäischer Reformstaaten

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  • Sell, Friedrich L.

Abstract

Der vorliegende Beitrag untersucht die Frage nach der Wahl eines optimalen Wechselkursregimes für ausgewählte Transformationsländer (Tschechische Republik, Ungarn, Estland, Slowenien und Polen), die an einer baldigen Aufnahme in die EWWU interessiert sind. Der gewählte Analyseansatz greift auf positive und normative Hinweise der Club Theorie zurück. Es wird zunächst gezeigt, wie sich die optimale Größe (Anzahl der Mitglieder) und die optimale Bereitstellung des Clubgutes (Inflationsrate) einer Währungsunion simultan bestimmen lassen. Gleichfalls wird die Anreizstruktur für bisherige Mitglieder, neue aufzunehmen und für Aufnahmekandidaten, der Währungsunion beizutreten, dargestellt. Vor diesem Hintergrund werden Kriterien (Kosten und Nutzen des Beitritts) für eine bestmögliche Strategie der Wechselkurspolitik der Beitrittskandidaten zur Vorbereitung auf den EURO entwickelt. Der am Ende erarbeitete Vorschlag läuft darauf hinaus, das Konzept von der Schlange im Tunnel neu zu beleben, wobei die Reformstaaten enge Bandbreiten ihrer Wechselkurse untereinander und vergleichsweise weite gegenüber dem EURO wählen sollten.

Suggested Citation

  • Sell, Friedrich L., 1999. "Die EWWU als Club: Positive und normative Implikationen für den Beitritt mittel- und osteuropäischer Reformstaaten," Working Papers in Economics 1999,4, Bundeswehr University Munich, Economic Research Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ubwwpe:19994
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    1. Sell, Friedrich L., 2007. "More about economic and non-economic determinants of (mutual) trust and trustworthiness," Working Papers in Economics 2007,2, Bundeswehr University Munich, Economic Research Group.
    2. Jochem, Axel, 1999. "Währungspolitische Interdependenz der EU-Beitrittskandidaten und die Wahl eines geeigneten Wechselkurssystems," Working Papers in Economics 1999,5, Bundeswehr University Munich, Economic Research Group.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Club-Theorie; EWWU; Transformationsländer; Wechselkurspolitik; Kosten- und Nutzenanalyse; Club Theory; EMU; Economies in Transition; Exchange Rate Policy; Cost and Benefit Analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • D71 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Social Choice; Clubs; Committees; Associations
    • P43 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Finance; Public Finance
    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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