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Währungspolitische Interdependenz der EU-Beitrittskandidaten und die Wahl eines geeigneten Wechselkurssystems: Beitrag für den Projektbericht: Währungspolitische Optionen für die mittel- und osteuropäischen Beitrittskandidaten zur EU

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  • Jochem, Axel

Abstract

Der vorliegende Diskussionsbeitrag entstand im Rahmen eines Forschungsprojektes über die monetäre Integration von fünf mittel- und osteuropäischen EU-Beitrittskandidaten (Polen, Tschechische Republik, Ungarn, Slowenien und Estland). Das hier vorgestellte Kapitel geht auf die währungspolitischen Interdependenzen in der Region ein und zieht daraus Schlüsse für ein geeignetes Wechselkurssystem der genannten Länder. Dabei erweisen sich die Wechselkurselastizitäten des Sozialproduktes, die Korrelation exogener Schocks und die Priorität monetärer bzw. realer Ziele als die entscheidenden Variablen. In der gegenwärtigen Situation überwiegen die Nachteile fester Wechselkurse, die aus einer verminderten Reaktionsfähigkeit auf exogene Schocks beruhen, die Vorteile einer verringerten Wechselkursvolatilität. Der intensive Wettbewerb innerhalb Mittel- und Osteuropas (MOE) um Exporte in die EU und eine wachsende Bedeutung stabiler Wechselkurse gegenüber dem Euro könnten in der Zukunft allerdings einen gemeinsamen Übergang zu festen Wechselkursen sinnvoll erscheinen lassen. Gleichwohl bleibt ein generelles Fixkursregime einer währungspolitischen Koordination, etwa in Gestalt einer Schlange im Tunnel, in jedem Fall unterlegen. -- This paper is part of a research project on monetary integration of five EU-accession candidates (Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia and Estonia). The chapter presented here focuses on monetary policy interdependencies in the region and draws some conclusions on the adequate exchange rate regimes in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). The exchange rate elasticities of output, the correlation of exogenous shocks and the priority of monetary or real targets turn out to be the decisive variables. At the present, the social costs of fixed exchange rates due to a reduced absorption of exogenous shocks outweigh the possible gains, which result from reduced exchange rate volatility. However, the strong competition of the selected countries for exports in the EU and a rising importance of stable exchange rates vis-à-vis the Euro may give an argument for a common switch to fixed exchange rates in the future. Nevertheless, it is argued that fixed exchange rates will always be inferior to monetary coordination in CEE, e.g. in the form of a snake in the tunnel.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universität der Bundeswehr München, Economic Research Group in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 1999,5.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:ubwwpe:19995

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Keywords: EWU; Transformationsländer; Wechselkurspolitik; Spieltheorie; EMU; Economies in Transition; Exchange Rate Policy; Game Theory;

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  1. Sell, Friedrich L., 1999. "Die EWWU als Club: Positive und normative Implikationen für den Beitritt mittel- und osteuropäischer Reformstaaten ; Beitrag für den Projektbericht: Währungspolitische Optionen für die mittel- un," Working Papers in Economics 1999,4, Universität der Bundeswehr München, Economic Research Group.
  2. Owen F. Humpage & Jean M. McIntire, 1995. "An introduction to currency boards," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q II, pages 2-11.
  3. Canzoneri, Matthew B & Gray, Jo Anna, 1985. "Monetary Policy Games and the Consequences of Non-cooperative Behavior," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(3), pages 547-64, October.
  4. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Dale W. Henderson, 1991. "Monetary Policy in Interdependent Economies: A Game-Theoretic Approach," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262031787, December.
  5. Giavazzi, Francesco & Giovannini, Alberto, 1986. "Monetary Policy Interactions under Managed Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 123, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Schweickert, Rainer, 1998. "Chancen und Risiken eines Currency Board Systems," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 1786, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  7. Masahiro Kawai, 1992. "Optimal and Sustainable Exchange Rate Regimes," IMF Working Papers 92/100, International Monetary Fund.
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