Søren Johansen (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen and CREATES, University of Aarhus) Anders Rygh Swensen (University of Oslo and Statistics Norway)
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Campbell and Shiller (1987) proposed a graphical technique for the present value model which consists of plotting the spread and theoretical spread as calculated from the cointegrated vector autoregressive model. We extend these techniques to a number of rational expectation models and give a general definition of spread and theoretical spread. The main results are the asymptotic distributions of the variance ratio, noise ratio, and correlation between the estimated spread and theoretical spreads. We derive sup tests for the recursively calculated quantities. Finally we apply the methods to two previous studies by Campbell and Shiller (1987) and Engsted (2002).
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Paper provided by University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number
09-10.
Length: 30 pages Date of creation: May 2009 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:kud:kuiedp:0910
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