Misspecification versus bubbles in hyperinflation data: comment
AbstractIn this comment I critically review some of the claims and analyses made by Hooker (2000) in his study of the Cagan hyperinflation model. I argue that: i) contrary to what Hooker claims, cointegration tests can be used to discriminate between bubbles and no bubbles; ii) contrary to Hooker's claim, his empirical results for the interwar European hyperinflations do not general imply that the Cagan model is misspecified; iii) although Hooker's analyses build directly on the Durlauf and Hall (1989) methodology, he neglects an important part of that methodology, namely the measurement of the magnitude of noise. I present such measures, and together with reported cointegration tests the noise measure help reinterpreting Hooker's empirical results.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.
Volume (Year): 22 (2003)
Issue (Month): 4 (August)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443
Other versions of this item:
- Engsted, Tom, 2002. "Misspecification versus bubbles in hyperinflation data: Comment," Finance Working Papers, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies 02-2, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bhargava, Alok, 1986. "On the Theory of Testing for Unit Roots in Observed Time Series," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3), pages 369-84, July.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986.
"Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
785, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-88, October.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," NBER Working Papers 1885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John & Shiller, Robert, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Scholarly Articles 3122490, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Engsted, Tom, 2002. " Measures of Fit for Rational Expectations Models," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 301-55, July.
- Steven N. Durlauf & Robert E. Hall, 1989. "Bounds on the Variances of Specification Errors in Models with Expectations," NBER Working Papers 2936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Taylor, Mark P, 1990.
"The Hyperinflation Model of Money Demand Revisited,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
473, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Taylor, Mark P, 1991. "The Hyperinflation Model of Money Demand Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 327-51, August.
- Engsted, Tom, 1994. "The Classic European Hyperinflations Revisited: Testing the Cagan Model Using a Cointegrated VAR Approach," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 61(243), pages 331-43, August.
- repec:att:wimass:9326 is not listed on IDEAS
- Hooker, Mark A., 2000. "Misspecification versus bubbles in hyperinflation data: Monte Carlo and interwar European evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 583-600, August.
- Niels Haldrup, 1998. "An Econometric Analysis of I(2) Variables," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 595-650, December.
- West, Kenneth D, 1987.
"A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press,
MIT Press, vol. 102(3), pages 553-80, August.
- Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "Explosive Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 520-30, June.
- Evans, George W, 1991. "Pitfalls in Testing for Explosive Bubbles in Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 922-30, September.
- Engsted, Tom, 1996. "The monetary model of the exchange rate under hyperinflation: New encouraging evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 37-44, April.
- Petrovic, Pavle & Mladenovic, Zorica, 2000. "Money Demand and Exchange Rate Determination under Hyperinflation: Conceptual Issues and Evidence from Yugoslavia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 785-806, November.
- Engsted, Tom, 1998. "Money Demand During Hyperinflation: Cointegration, Rational Expectations, and the Importance of Money Demand Shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 533-552, July.
- Durlauf, Steven N. & Maccini, Louis J., 1995.
"Measuring noise in inventory models,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier,
Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 65-89, August.
- Hing Chan & Kai Woo, 2006. "Bubbles detection for inter-war European hyperinflation: A threshold cointegration approach," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 169-185, June.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.