IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hum/wpaper/sfb649dp2007-004.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Volatility and Causality in Asia Pacific Financial Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Enzo Weber

Abstract

The present paper analyses interactions between the foreign exchange, money and stock markets in Asian Pacific countries from 1999 till 2006. Considering influences on financial market volatility, the estimations are carried out in multivariate EGARCH models using structural residuals. This approach consequently allows the identification of the contemporaneous effects between the variables. Structural VARs or VECMs can therefore give answers to questions of exchange rate stabilisation, monetary policy behaviour or equity market reagibility. Additionally, a correlation analysis of the identified innovations reveals the degree of coherence in the Asian Pacific region.

Suggested Citation

  • Enzo Weber, 2007. "Volatility and Causality in Asia Pacific Financial Markets," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-004, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2007-004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/papers/pdf/SFB649DP2007-004.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Cipollini, Andrea & Demetriades, Panicos O., 2005. "Monetary policy and the exchange rate during the Asian crisis: identification through heteroscedasticity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 39-53, February.
    2. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    3. Rigobon, Roberto, 2002. "The curse of non-investment grade countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 423-449, December.
    4. Jurgen A. Doornik, 1998. "Approximations To The Asymptotic Distributions Of Cointegration Tests," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 573-593, December.
    5. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003. "Real-Time Price Discovery in Stock, Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets," PIER Working Paper Archive 04-028, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 28 Jun 2004.
    6. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1999. "Interest Rates, Risk, and Imperfect Markets: Puzzles and Policies," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(2), pages 59-76, Summer.
    7. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2003. "Measuring The Reaction of Monetary Policy to the Stock Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(2), pages 639-669.
    8. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (ed.), 1991. "Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283393.
    9. Ernst R. Berndt & Bronwyn H. Hall & Robert E. Hall & Jerry A. Hausman, 1974. "Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 653-665, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Lee, Keun Yeong, 2006. "The contemporaneous interactions between the U.S., Japan, and Hong Kong stock markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 21-27, January.
    11. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    12. Hahn Shik Lee, 2004. "International transmission of stock market movements: a wavelet analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 197-201.
    13. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2003. "Spillovers Across U.S. Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 9640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Sentana, Enrique & Fiorentini, Gabriele, 2001. "Identification, estimation and testing of conditionally heteroskedastic factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 143-164, June.
    15. Carlos Bautista, 2003. "Interest rate-exchange rate dynamics in the Philippines: a DCC analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 107-111.
    16. Jurgen A. Doornik, 1998. "Approximations To The Asymptotic Distributions Of Cointegration Tests," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 573-593, December.
    17. John H. Boyd & Jian Hu & Ravi Jagannathan, 2005. "The Stock Market's Reaction to Unemployment News: Why Bad News Is Usually Good for Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 649-672, April.
    18. Comte, F. & Lieberman, O., 2003. "Asymptotic theory for multivariate GARCH processes," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 61-84, January.
    19. Shieh-Liang Chen & Shian-Chang Huang & Yi-Mien Lin, 2007. "Using multivariate stochastic volatility models to investigate the interactions among NASDAQ and major Asian stock indices," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 127-133.
    20. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2007. "Real-time price discovery in global stock, bond and foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 251-277, November.
    21. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, November.
    22. Joo Ha Nam & Ky-hyang Yuhn & Sang Bong Kim, 2008. "What happened to pacific-basin emerging markets after the 1997 financial crisis?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(8), pages 639-658.
    23. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    24. King, Mervyn & Sentana, Enrique & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1994. "Volatility and Links between National Stock Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 901-933, July.
    25. Ross, Stephen A, 1989. " Information and Volatility: The No-Arbitrage Martingale Approach to Timing and Resolution Irrelevancy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 1-17, March.
    26. Sang Jin Lee, 2009. "Volatility spillover effects amongsix Asian countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(5), pages 501-508.
    27. Cappiello, Lorenzo & De Santis, Roberto A., 2005. "Explaining exchange rate dynamics: the uncovered equity return parity condition," Working Paper Series 529, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Weber, Enzo & Zhang, Yanqun, 2012. "Common influences, spillover and integration in Chinese stock markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 382-394.
    2. Weber, Enzo, 2009. "Financial Contagion, Vulnerability and Information Flow: Empirical Identification," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 431, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    3. Weber, Enzo, 2013. "Simultaneous stochastic volatility transmission across American equity markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 53-60.
    4. Enzo Weber, 2007. "Correlation vs. Causality in Stock Market Comovement," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-064, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    5. Enzo Weber, 2008. "Structural Constant Conditional Correlation," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-015, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    6. Weber, Enzo, 2013. "Decomposing U.S. Stock Market Comovement into spillovers and common factors," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 106-118.
    7. Conrad, Christian & Weber, Enzo, 2013. "Measuring Persistence in Volatility Spillovers," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79850, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. González-Sánchez, Mariano, 2018. "Causality in the EMU sovereign bond markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 281-290.
    9. Enzo Weber, 2008. "Structural Dynamic Conditional Correlation," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-069, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    10. Masih, Mansur & Majid, Hamdan Abdul, 2013. "The Volatility and Correlations of Stock Returns of Some Crisis-Hit Countries: US, Greece, Thailand and Malaysia: Evidence from MGARCH-DCC applications," MPRA Paper 58946, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Enzo Weber, 2007. "Who Leads Financial Markets?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-015, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    12. Stelios D. Bekiros, 2013. "Decoupling and the Spillover Effects of the US Financial Crisis: Evidence from the BRIC Markets," Working Paper series 21_13, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    13. Xiaochun Liu, 2018. "Structural Volatility Impulse Response Function and Asymptotic Inference," The Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 16(2), pages 316-339.
    14. González, Mariano, 2016. "Asymmetric causality in-mean and in-variance among equity markets indexes," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 49-68.
    15. Bekiros, Stelios D., 2014. "Contagion, decoupling and the spillover effects of the US financial crisis: Evidence from the BRIC markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 58-69.
    16. Andreas Andrikopoulos & Aristeidis Samitas & Konstantinos Kougepsakis, 2014. "Volatility transmission across currencies and stock markets: GIIPS in crisis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(19), pages 1261-1283, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Enzo Weber, 2007. "Who Leads Financial Markets?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-015, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    2. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Roberto Rigobon, 2011. "Stocks, bonds, money markets and exchange rates: measuring international financial transmission," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 948-974, September.
    3. Enzo Weber, 2007. "Correlation vs. Causality in Stock Market Comovement," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-064, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    4. Emanuele BACCHIOCCHI, 2011. "Identification through heteroskedasticity: a likelihood-based approach," Departmental Working Papers 2011-19, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    5. Kohonen, Anssi, 2013. "On detection of volatility spillovers in overlapping stock markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 140-158.
    6. Roberto Rigobon & Dani Rodrik, 2004. "Rule of Law, Democracy, Openness, and Income: Estimating the Interrelationships," NBER Working Papers 10750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Emanuele BACCHIOCCHI, 2010. "Identification through heteroskedasticity in a likelihood-based approach: some theoretical results," Departmental Working Papers 2010-38, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    8. Weber, Enzo, 2013. "Decomposing U.S. Stock Market Comovement into spillovers and common factors," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 106-118.
    9. Lee, Ha Yan & Ricci, Luca Antonio & Rigobon, Roberto, 2004. "Once again, is openness good for growth?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 451-472, December.
    10. Emanuele BACCHIOCCHI, 2015. "On the Identification of Interdependence and Contagion of Financial Crises," Departmental Working Papers 2015-12, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    11. Enzo Weber, 2008. "Structural Dynamic Conditional Correlation," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-069, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    12. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 285-318, June.
    13. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2005. "The effects of war risk on US financial markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1769-1789, July.
    14. Weber, Enzo & Zhang, Yanqun, 2012. "Common influences, spillover and integration in Chinese stock markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 382-394.
    15. Anna Pavlova & Roberto Rigobon, 2007. "Asset Prices and Exchange Rates," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(4), pages 1139-1180.
    16. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2009. "Global Financial Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(6), pages 739-759, December.
    17. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2017. "Euro area government bonds – Fragmentation and contagion during the sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 26-44.
    18. Enzo Weber, 2008. "Structural Constant Conditional Correlation," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-015, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    19. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2007. "Real-time price discovery in global stock, bond and foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 251-277, November.
    20. Bensafta, Kamel Malik & Semedo, Gervasio, 2009. "De la transmission de la volatilité à la contagion entre marchés boursiers : l’éclairage d’un modèle VAR non linéaire avec bris structurels en variance," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 85(1), pages 13-76, mars.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural EGARCH; Financial Markets; Asia Pacific;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2007-004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: RDC-Team (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sohubde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.