Financial Contagion, Vulnerability and Information Flow: Empirical Identification
AbstractThis paper proposes a new approach to modelling financial transmission effects. In simultaneous systems of stock returns, fundamental shocks are identified through heteroscedasticity. The size of contemporaneous spillovers is determined in the fashion of smooth transition regression by the innovations' variances and (negative) signs, both representing typical crisis-related magnitudes. Thereby, contagion describes higher inward transmission in times of foreign crisis, whereas vulnerability is defined as increased susceptibility to foreign shocks in times of domestic turmoil. The application to major American stock indices confirms US dominance and demonstrates that volatility and sign of the equity returns significantly govern spillover size.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Regensburg, Department of Economics in its series University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems with number 431.
Date of creation: 10 Jul 2009
Date of revision:
Contagion; Vulnerability; Identification; Smooth Transition Regression;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-07-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2010-07-24 (Banking)
- NEP-CFN-2010-07-24 (Corporate Finance)
- NEP-ECM-2010-07-24 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2010-07-24 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-IFN-2010-07-24 (International Finance)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Enzo Weber, 2010.
"Volatility and causality in Asia Pacific financial markets,"
Applied Financial Economics,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(16), pages 1269-1292.
- Enzo Weber, 2007. "Volatility and Causality in Asia Pacific Financial Markets," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-004, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Mardi Dungey & George Milunovich & Susan Thorp, 2008. "Unobservable Shocks as Carriers of Contagion: A Dynamic Analysis Using Identified Structural GARCH," NCER Working Paper Series 22, National Centre for Econometric Research.
- Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999.
"No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements,"
NBER Working Papers
7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
- Rigobon, Roberto, 2003. "On the measurement of the international propagation of shocks: is the transmission stable?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 261-283, December.
- Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Cipollini, Andrea & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2005. "Testing for contagion: a conditional correlation analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 476-489, June.
- Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana Iváñez, 1997.
"Identification, estimation and testing of conditionally heteroskedastic factor models,"
Working Papers. Serie AD
1997-22, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
- Sentana, Enrique & Fiorentini, Gabriele, 2001. "Identification, estimation and testing of conditionally heteroskedastic factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 143-164, June.
- Sentana, E. & Fiorentini, G., 1997. "Identification, Estimation and Testing of Conditionally Heteroskedastic Factor Model," Papers 9709, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
- Enzo Weber, 2007. "Correlation vs. Causality in Stock Market Comovement," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-064, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Skalin, Joakim, 1998. "Testing linearity against smooth transition autoregression using a parametric bootstrap," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 276, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 13 Dec 1998.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Gernot Deinzer).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.